Russia is planning an armed “provocation” on Polish territory, according to reports by Axel Springer publications, Poland’s Onet and Britain’s The Telegraph.
The reports, citing sources in Polish intelligence and people close to Polish President Karol Nawrocki, say the United States has repeatedly warned about such a possibility.
The reported scenarios include drone attacks on critical infrastructure such as power plants, or simulated air strikes that would force Poland to activate its air defence systems. The most extreme scenario is described as “a hybrid attack in a border region,” including the involvement of Russian or Belarusian soldiers.
Russia could present the incident as an accidental incursion into Polish territory caused by a GPS malfunction or as a rescue operation to evacuate a helicopter that had experienced a technical failure. Such an incursion could originate from Belarus or the Kaliningrad region.
According to the Polish sources, the Russian side expects that, rather than opening fire on Russian or Belarusian soldiers in such a situation, Poland would come under U.S. pressure to negotiate with Russia or Belarus. Moscow would regard the withdrawal of its forces as a result of such negotiations, rather than through military action, as a victory. During the talks, the Russian side could also demand an end to support for Ukraine.
A security source in the Baltic states confirmed to The Telegraph that such plans are being discussed in Moscow. Russia could then attempt to claim that the provocation had been carried out by Ukraine.
Such actions could allow Russia to undermine Poland’s sovereignty and portray NATO as a “paper tiger.”
A senior official at Poland’s Ministry of National Defence confirmed the possibility of a Russian provocation but said Poland had already conducted exercises intended to warn Moscow of NATO’s devastating response.
From Moscow’s perspective, a provocation targeting Poland would be a better option than one directed against any of the Baltic states, European security sources told the publications.
The sources also stressed that any Russian provocation would not resemble a “classic” or conventional war and that Moscow has not yet decided to carry it out.
