Belarus’s GDP declined by 0.4% in the first quarter of 2026, according to the National Bank’s quarterly inflation review. For comparison, GDP grew by 0.3% in October–December 2025.
“Weaker external demand led to a cooling of economic activity”, the review said.
GDP dynamics were supported by domestic demand, primarily driven by household spending on final consumption. Domestic demand was underpinned by wage growth and attractive lending conditions for purchases of Belarusian goods.
The main increase in consumption was observed in the non-food segment. It rose by 7.8% in the first quarter compared with a 3.6% increase in the fourth quarter of last year. In March, consumption of non-food goods grew by 19.1%. For example, car sales increased by 9% in the first quarter.
Investment activity weakened largely due to the suspension of construction and installation works caused by the cold winter. Investment in fixed capital fell by 3%, after growing by 3.4% in the previous quarter.
