For the close friend of Alyaksandr Lukashenka, Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, difficult times have arrived. The new U.S. administration appears determined to remove the politician whom Washington does not consider the legitimately elected head of the South American state. At the same time, the Ambassador of Venezuela to Russia, Jesús Rafael Salazar Velásquez, has been making frequent trips to Belarus. Today it emerged that the diplomat was expected to deliver Maduro’s response to certain “problems and questions.” What exactly might the Belarusian politician have been offering his Venezuelan counterpart?
Clouds Are Gathering
Tensions around Venezuela continue to escalate. Today Donald Trump announced the seizure of a sanctioned supertanker off the country’s coast.
U.S. Attorney General Pam Bondi stated that the detained vessel was under U.S. sanctions “for its involvement in an illicit oil-shipping network supporting foreign terrorist organizations.” Sky News, citing the maritime risk management group Vanguard, reported that the tanker in question is likely the Skipper, sanctioned for participating in trade involving Iranian oil. The seizure marks another step toward escalation.
Back in March 2020, during Trump’s first term, Washington designated Maduro a member of a foreign terrorist organization responsible for drug trafficking and illegal migration into the United States. The U.S. Department of Justice alleges that Maduro and 14 senior officials control the cartels Cártel de Los Soles and Tren de Aragua. In August this year, the State Department increased the reward for information leading to Maduro’s arrest to $50 million. Maduro’s government denies all accusations, insisting that the U.S. is seeking access to Venezuela’s oil. “It has always been about our natural resources, our oil, our energy — resources that belong exclusively to the Venezuelan people,” officials in Caracas say.
In September, U.S. forces began conducting strikes on vessels off the Venezuelan coast allegedly involved in drug trafficking. In November, a U.S. Navy carrier strike group arrived in the region, led by the USS Gerald R. Ford. Trump then authorized covert CIA operations in Venezuela and declared the closure of Venezuelan airspace.
In response to U.S. pressure, Maduro announced the mobilization of 4.5 million militia members. Yet many experts doubt the Venezuelan military’s ability to withstand a potential attack.
Several days ago, in an interview with Politico, Trump stated that “Maduro’s days are numbered” and did not rule out a ground invasion of Venezuela.
A Missed Deadline
Initial reports suggested that Maduro, negotiating with Washington, had expressed willingness to step down in 18 months. The U.S. side, allegedly, found this insufficient.
Later, Reuters reported that Trump and Maduro held a phone conversation on 21 November.
According to reports, Maduro told Trump he was prepared to leave Venezuela but outlined several conditions. He demanded amnesty for himself and his family, the lifting of all U.S. sanctions, and the closure of his case at the International Criminal Court. Maduro also asked that sanctions be removed from more than 100 Venezuelan officials accused by the U.S. of human rights abuses, drug trafficking, and corruption.
Trump reportedly rejected most requests, giving Maduro one week to leave Venezuela with his family and relocate to a destination of his choosing. After the deadline expired, the U.S. closed Venezuelan airspace.
Trump later confirmed the conversation but said only: “I wouldn’t say the call went well or poorly. It was just a phone call.”
One More Exile?
Against this backdrop, Ambassador Jesús Rafael Salazar Velásquez has been making frequent trips to Minsk. Alyaksandr Lukashenka first received him on 25 November. At that meeting, the Belarusian leader stated that he “awaits Maduro’s visit to Belarus.”
“I would like our relations to be more intensive, more advanced. There is much to discuss. Please convey to my friend Nicolás Maduro that we always await him in Belarus. It is time for him to visit Belarus.”
At that point, given the longstanding ties between the Belarusian and Venezuelan regimes, the visit attracted little attention. But less than three weeks later, Ambassador Salazar Velásquez returned to Minsk. And this time the few details released by Lukashenka’s press service raise significant questions.
According to Lukashenka, the diplomat had just been in Caracas and met with Maduro.
“Recently we discussed a number of issues in our relationship and the situation around Venezuela. We agreed that you would coordinate certain matters with the leadership of Venezuela — with Nicolás Maduro. After agreeing on these problems and questions, you would find time to come to me again so that we could make a corresponding decision within our competence. And if needed, we will then involve the President of Venezuela.”
Thus, the ambassador was expected to deliver Maduro’s position on certain unclear proposals. What might Lukashenka have offered the embattled Venezuelan leader?
It is doubtful that the matter concerns military or technical support — Belarus simply does not have such resources, nor, at the moment, does Russia, heavily engaged in its war in Ukraine. It is also unlikely to involve financial schemes for securing the assets of Venezuela’s elite; in that case, the visit would have been kept secret.
One possibility remains: Lukashenka is signaling that he is ready to host Maduro — to grant him asylum if departure becomes unavoidable. And events suggest such a scenario is increasingly likely.
Thus, Lukashenka may soon gain another Nicolás — or Nikolai — on Belarusian soil. And alongside Kurmanbek Bakiyev, the long-exiled former President of Kyrgyzstan, Belarus may gain yet another fugitive politician. Dictators tend to show solidarity. And a “guest” with no escape options can be milked generously.
Perhaps Maduro’s relocation to Belarus is even part of the “grand deal” with the United States that Lukashenka now frequently invokes. At the very least, Donald Trump would certainly appreciate whoever helps him rid himself of the Venezuelan burden with minimal cost.
