Poland’s Deputy Foreign Minister Marcin Bosacki said that after the exchange that took place this week, which resulted in the release of Andrzej Poczobut, relations between Warsaw and Minsk, if they have warmed at all, have done so only slightly. According to Bosacki, their “temperature” has risen from minus 20 to minus 15 degrees.
“I would describe it this way: the temperature of mutual relations was minus 20 degrees, and now, perhaps due to what happened with Andrzej Poczobut and this exchange, it may be minus 15 degrees, but the fundamental reasons why Polish-Belarusian relations are so poor have certainly not changed.
This includes Belarus’s support for Russia’s war in Ukraine, which has indeed decreased, but hybrid pressure from Belarus continues. This is happening in coordination with Russia. It is not only about attempts to cross the border and transfer illegal migrants. This has decreased, but, for example, the sending of smuggling balloons across the Polish border continues. None of this has changed. Further steps are needed from Belarus to bring these relations at least back to zero (degrees — ed.)”, Bosacki said on the morning broadcast of TVPinfo.
The programme host Mariusz Piekarski asked the minister to clarify Russia’s role in recent developments and whether Alyaksandr Lukashenka might want to reduce dependence on Moscow.
“We are convinced that this exchange took place in part because Russians were involved and wanted this broader exchange to bring back their citizens. I generally believe that Lukashenka would not want to be so dependent on Putin. Every ruler, including a dictator, wants some room for manoeuvre and freedom.
But we see that in the most important decisions of recent years, Lukashenka depends on Putin. It was from his territory that the attack on Ukraine was launched in 2022, and it remains his territory. Now Russian drones, as we have seen also in the case of Poland and not only Ukraine, receive assistance from his territory in targeting, and when they fly, at least towards northern Ukraine, Belarus helps.
And so on, and so on. The operation to send illegal migrants to Poland and Lithuania is certainly an operation supported by Russian special services. I think Lukashenka would like (more room for manoeuvre — ed.), but his room for manoeuvre is very limited, although his relations with the United States have expanded since last year”, Bosacki said.
Answering a question about the reasons behind the interest of Donald Trump’s administration in Lukashenka and a possible visit to the United States, the deputy minister said he did not rule out such a scenario.
“Why does the Trump administration and Trump himself invest so much? He speaks about him, perhaps not in the words of Marshal Karczewski, calling him a warm person, but rather that he is… a fairly good partner — that is the wording. Because I believe Belarus is a testing ground for America in warming political relations to conclude major deals. Of course, deals with Belarus would be smaller in scale than with Russia, but it is nevertheless attractive for a significant part of the American elite, especially for business”, Bosacki said.
