Easing sanctions against Belarus would affect the country’s economic resilience. However, restoring economic ties with the West would not compensate for Belarus’ dependence on Russia. This is stated in the annual report on national security threats prepared by the intelligence service of Lithuania’s Ministry of Defence and the State Security Department.
“Although the Belarusian regime has expressed an interest in improving relations with Western countries, it almost certainly does not intend to soften its authoritarian policies. Public meetings between Alyaksandr Lukashenka and Western officials strengthen the international status of the Belarusian regime. The regime uses these meetings in its propaganda to reinforce the narrative that ensuring regional security is inseparable from Belarus’s involvement in addressing security issues in the region.
Easing sanctions against Belarus is likely to have a significant impact on the country’s economic sustainability and growth. However, restoring economic ties with the West will not offset Belarus’s growing economic dependence on Russia,” the report says.
The document also notes that “extremist lists” in Belarus continue to expand and increasingly include individuals and organizations from other countries.
Lithuanian intelligence also highlighted the growing importance of Belarus’ cooperation with China.
“By releasing prominent Belarusian democratic opposition figures and other political prisoners, the Belarusian regime almost certainly was primarily hoping for a favourable response and proposals for possible negotiations from Western countries or the lifting of sanctions. Using political prisoners as a bargaining tool is an age-old tactic of the Belarusian regime, as demonstrated multiple times in the past when political prisoners were released in order to demonstrate the regime’s alleged goodwill,” the report states.
The document also emphasizes that Alyaksandr Lukashenka resorts to pressure tactics. As an example, it cites incidents involving smugglers’ weather balloons, comparing them with the organization of migration pressure on the Lithuanian border in 2021.
“Despite Belarus’s interest in improving relations with the West, its policies and actions towards Lithuania and neighbouring countries are highly likely to remain aggressive in the near term. While Belarus is likely to convey its desire to restore relations and cooperation with Lithuania, it will be reluctant to take concrete steps to reduce tensions. It will deny any involvement in hostile actions against Lithuania and will disseminate propaganda accusing Lithuania of aggression towards Belarus,” the authors of the report conclude.
Assessing relations between Belarus and China, Lithuanian intelligence notes a decline in direct investment from China as well as a trade imbalance in Beijing’s favor. The report also points to growing support by Minsk for China’s foreign policy and deepening cooperation in the security sphere.
“Cooperation in the security field between the countries is likely to pose challenges in the region, as they will encourage closer collaboration between Chinese and Belarusian intelligence services and create favourable conditions for the Minsk regime to strengthen its control over Belarusian society and the country’s security apparatus,” the report says.
According to the report’s authors, Russia views Minsk’s ties with Beijing favorably as long as they serve its interests in the context of the war against Ukraine, particularly in acquiring sanctioned goods.
“China highly likely prioritises maintaining good relations with Russia and therefore does not seek to challenge its influence in Belarus,” the document says.
The report also draws attention to the designation as “extremist” of the Russian-language YouTube channel of the Delfi portal. Lithuanian intelligence believes this likely occurred after the publication of an interview with Siarhei Tsikhanouski.
“Subscribers to this channel are likely to face administrative arrest when travelling to Belarus.
The Belarusian State Security Committee (KGB) conducts interviews and checks on individuals travelling from Lithuania to Belarus, including inspection of their mobile devices. In search of information relevant to Belarusian intelligence, KGB officers look for links to organisations and references to online sources that have been declared extremist, including evidence of subscriptions to them. The Belarusian regime considers even distant links to such entities as sufficient grounds for detaining individuals, arresting them, and adding them to extremist watchlists,” the report warns.
It also recounts the case of a Lithuanian citizen detained in August 2024 and placed in custody. The man had administered social media channels critical of the regime and had been included in extremist lists in 2022.
“During his period of incarceration, the Lithuanian citizen was subjected to constant psychological pressure by the KGB. He underwent a polygraph test and was interrogated on multiple occasions. During the imprisonment, he was threatened that if he refused to comply with the KGB’s orders, his wife would be detained and charged with colluding with Lithuanian intelligence, and their children would be placed into foster care.
The KGB pressured the Lithuanian citizen to participate in propaganda interviews that portrayed the Belarusian regime positively, to appear in videos that discredited Lithuania, and make phone calls to Lithuanian institutions. During the calls, representatives of Lithuanian institutions were provoked to comment on Lithuanian-Belarusian relations. It is highly likely that the KGB planned to use recordings of these calls for propaganda activities against Lithuania. The videos were intended to discredit the deployment of NATO troops in Lithuania, portray Lithuanian institutions negatively, and present the Belarusian regime positively,” the report says.
The report does not disclose the further fate of the Lithuanian citizen.
It also states that the Belarusian KGB is increasingly attempting to recruit members of the Belarusian diaspora in Lithuania through messaging apps. In exchange for information they offer financial rewards, assistance with renewing documents and the possibility of freely visiting and returning to Belarus. The goal of such recruitment is to collect information about the diaspora, the Belarusian democratic forces and their activities.
The report also describes attempts by Belarus and Russia to obtain access to technologies, including dual-use technologies, through companies linked to Belarusian and Russian citizens. It cites the example of Lithuanian companies NTLab and Kosminis Vytis, created by Belarusian citizen Dzmitry Cherniakouski, who managed them together with his son Mikalai and daughter Darya.
“Contrary to their claims, they did not sever their links with Russia and Belarus while developing their activities in Lithuania. They ran companies there and maintained ties with the entities connected to the Russian and Belarusian military industries,” the report says.
It notes that Mikalai Cherniakouski headed the companies Navitron and Sainstech in Russia. The group of companies managed by the Cherniakouski family also included the Belarusian firms SoftSistemz, NaviIS and MikroDizain. Russian and Belarusian companies within the NTLab group participated in the development of military programs and cooperated with organizations linked to the Russian and Belarusian military industries, including the Belarusian Military Academy, the scientific and technical center LEMT, the Skolkovo high-tech park, the Russian scientific and technical center Modul, the Russian company Mikron and others. Most of these organizations are under international sanctions.
“The activities and connections of these companies in Russia and Belarus posed a threat to national security interests by enabling Russian and Belarusian military industries to acquire technologies developed in Lithuania and elsewhere, thereby contributing to strengthening of the regimes.
Following an initiative by Lithuanian intelligence in the spring of 2025, the Commission for Coordination of Protection of Objects Critical for National Security assessed the companies’ compliance with national security interests. Both companies were found to be incompatible with these interests and were prohibited from continuing their activities in the high-tech sector,” the report says.
The national security threat assessment also discusses the participation of the Belarusian military-industrial complex in supplying the Russian army fighting against Ukraine, Lithuanian anti-Western activists who fled to Belarus, the Zapad-2025 exercises, the deployment of the “Oreshnik” system in Belarus, the state of nuclear energy and plans to expand the Belarusian Nuclear Power Plant (BelNPP).
