Former U.S. presidential envoy for Ukraine Keith Kellogg believes that Belarus entering the war against Ukraine would mean the end of Aliaksandr Lukashenka and that the Belarusian military would be defeated. He made the remarks while speaking at the Black Sea Security Forum in Odesa.
Asked whether there is currently a real threat of a Belarusian invasion of Ukraine, Kellogg said such a move would be a serious mistake by Lukashenka. In his view, Belarusian forces would be unable to withstand the Ukrainian military, while Lukashenka already faces internal discontent.
Kellogg recalled that he had personally met with Lukashenka when the United States was negotiating the release of political prisoners. Following that meeting in June 2025, 14 political prisoners were released, including Siarhei Tsikhanouski.
Kellogg noted Lukashenka’s close relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin and said that the military buildup in Belarus could also be directed toward the West. However, he said he was not particularly concerned by such reports.
According to Kellogg, if Lukashenka were pressured into joining the war against Ukraine, it would likely mark the end of his rule as it is known today. He argued that Belarusian forces would not be capable of confronting Ukrainian troops, particularly on the northern front. While Belarus served as one of the routes used during the initial assault on Kyiv in 2022, Kellogg said he does not consider a similar scenario likely in the future and described such a move as extremely reckless.
