The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) forecasts growth in consumer demand in Belarus amid accelerating wage growth.
“Real wages in Belarus accelerated their growth, creating conditions for expanding consumer demand. In May 2026, real wages increased by 7.5% year-on-year after rising by 6.7% year-on-year in April. In the public sector, real wage growth remains above the economy-wide average: according to our estimates, it accelerated to 9.9% year-on-year from 9.7% a month earlier,” the bank said in its weekly review of the economies of EDB member states.
The bank’s analysts note that wages account for more than 60% of household income. Wage growth is therefore the main driver of rising real disposable incomes.
“This creates conditions for further expansion of consumer activity and economic growth. Against this backdrop, we forecast Belarus’s GDP growth at 1.3% in 2026,” the EDB concluded.
The Eurasian Development Bank’s forecast is significantly lower than the GDP growth target of 2.8% included in the official socioeconomic development forecast signed by Aliaksandr Lukashenka.
