Today, the National Legal Internet Portal published Resolution No. 189 of the Council of Ministers of Belarus dated April 16, approving the medium-term financial program of the republican budget for 2026–2028.
According to the resolution, the tax burden on the Belarusian economy should remain at no more than 26% of GDP. At the same time, the government wants to achieve a balanced budget in 2027 and a surplus republican budget in 2028.
The program also includes faster GDP growth. While GDP is expected to grow by 2.8% in 2026, the growth rate is projected to increase to 2.9% in 2027 and 3% in 2028. At the same time, Belarusian GDP fell by 0.4% in the first quarter of 2026.
The program envisions a further slowdown in inflation. Annual price growth may amount to 6.3% in 2026, 6% in 2027, and fall to 5% in 2028.
The refinancing rate ranges included in the program allow for different scenarios but still point toward a gradual decrease in the rate. The average refinancing rate range for this year is set at 9.4–10.7% annually, for next year at 8.8–11%, and for 2028 at 8.3–11%.
Export growth is expected to slow from 3.7% this year to 3.5% in 2028, while imports of goods are expected to increase: by 1.5% this year, 2.8% next year, and 3% in 2028.
Some of the program’s parameters remain classified as “for official use only.”
The ratio of public debt to GDP is expected to decline from 26.1% to 22.8%.
The program provides for growth in almost all categories of republican budget expenditures. In particular, spending is expected to rise:
- on national defense — from 4.5 billion rubles in 2026 to 5.1 billion rubles in 2028,
- on law enforcement and security agencies — from 6.7 billion rubles in 2026 to 8.13 billion rubles in 2028,
- on the national economy — from 9.55 billion rubles in 2026 to 10.28 billion rubles in 2028,
- on healthcare — from 3.3 billion rubles in 2026 to 3.7 billion rubles in 2028,
- on education — from 2.53 billion rubles in 2026 to 2.93 billion rubles in 2028,
- on social policy — from 3.67 billion rubles in 2026 to 3.87 billion rubles in 2028.
