Eighty percent of inflation growth in 2025 was driven by just 20 product categories, including goods with administratively regulated prices, Deputy Chairman of the National Bank Board Andrei Kartun said.
“In 2025, we did not reach the inflation target: the goal was 5%, while the actual figure was 6.8%. There are objective reasons for this. By the end of the first half of the year, the 5% threshold had already been exceeded. External factors played a primary role: turbulence in the market for seasonal goods such as vegetables and fruit, as well as certain difficulties with products that carry significant weight in the consumer basket, such as confectionery. Prices for these products have been rising for a second year in a row. Everyone has heard about the situation with cocoa beans — prices on global markets rose by 200–300%. This feeds directly into raw material costs. Certain factors also affected meat and dairy products, where price growth was observed as well.
If we break down the 6.8% inflation figure into its components, 80% of total inflation comes from just 20 product categories, including administratively regulated prices and fuel prices. Taken together, these factors produced a higher figure than the target level,” he said.
Speaking about the outlook for this year, Kartun noted that it has started relatively well. The National Bank expects to keep core inflation growth at no more than 5%. The overall inflation target is set at no more than 7%.
“The start of the year has been fairly good. If nothing extraordinary happens, we will aim to reach 5% for core inflation — that is, inflation excluding permanently regulated prices and seasonal components,” he said.
According to Kartun, inflation risks remain on the import side.
“You can see what is happening in the world and the current geopolitical situation. Any disruption in logistics chains immediately affects certain goods. For example, if maritime supply chains are disrupted, fruit prices rise sharply. We set the overall inflation target at 7% with a margin, because we see risks coming from imported inflation. We will smooth fluctuations through monetary policy instruments. I believe there will be no significant volatility,” he said.