Alyaksandr Lukashenka will not attend the first meeting of the Peace Council. Instead, the regime will be represented in Washington by Foreign Minister Maksim Ryzhankou. What could have influenced the Belarusian politician’s decision to decline Donald Trump’s invitation?
Official Version
As Lukashenka’s press secretary Natallia Eismant said, an invitation to the first meeting of the newly created Peace Council was indeed sent to the politician. Nevertheless, Lukashenka will not travel to the United States.
According to Eismant, the main reason for declining a visit to Washington, where the Council meeting is planned to be held, was that the invitation arrived “late,” and the politician’s work schedule “for that period had already been planned.”
“We would have gladly visited the United States of America, but there are issues that cannot be postponed,” Eismant said.
In addition, according to Lukashenka’s press secretary, the decision was also influenced by “possible logistical difficulties that may arise due to illegal sanctions, primarily those imposed by the European Union — given the closure of EU airspace.”
As a result, at the first Peace Council meeting Lukashenka will be replaced by Foreign Minister Maksim Ryzhankou, who is described as “fully immersed in the subject of the Republic of Belarus’s participation in the Peace Council and other issues of the regional situation and bilateral Belarusian-American relations.”
An Illogical Refusal
At first glance, the Belarusian politician appeared to have a good opportunity to break through years of international isolation. He could personally meet the U.S. president and leaders of other states who accepted Trump’s invitation to participate in the work of the Peace Council.
Earlier, Belarus’s Foreign Ministry boasted that Lukashenka had been invited to the Council exclusively because of his “experience, resilience, and political will.” Trump’s personal appeal to Lukashenka with a proposal to become one of the founders of the Peace Council was proudly put on public display. Lukashenka signed the document on joining the Council among the first in the world. And Donald Trump himself, whose favor the Belarusian politician had been seeking so persistently, called Lukashenka “a powerful leader.”
Why, then, refuse at the most crucial moment the opportunity to demonstrate all these qualities in practice? Moreover, the emotional Trump, who clearly views the Peace Council as an important personal achievement, could simply take offense at the refusal and stop inviting Lukashenka altogether.
From Lukashenka’s long-planned and, according to Eismant, extremely busy work schedule, the only publicly announced event was his participation in a meeting of the Supreme State Council of the Union State on February 25. There is almost a week between the Peace Council meeting in Washington and the Supreme State Council session — enough time to attend both without much strain. No other foreign visits by the Belarusian politician were announced, nor were there reports of important foreign guests arriving in Belarus. It would seem that any planned meetings or domestic trips could have been postponed for the sake of an invitation from Trump.
Despite this, the Belarusian politician still decided not to go to Washington. Why? Let us look for possible reasons.
A Call From The Kremlin
The first outlet to report the planned Peace Council meeting in Washington on February 19 was Axios. According to the publication, on Friday, February 6, the Trump administration began contacting leaders of dozens of countries to invite them to the meeting and discuss logistics. As a signatory of the document joining this body, Lukashenka should also have received an invitation.
And already on Sunday, February 8, in the evening, Lukashenka had a phone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin. As the Kremlin press service reported, “a number of current international issues were also touched upon” during the call.
What if Putin called precisely to “strongly recommend” that Lukashenka not travel to Washington? It is unlikely that the Kremlin looks favorably on attempts by the Belarusian politician to emerge from isolation and build relations with the U.S. administration. Moreover, Russia itself is in no hurry to join Trump’s Peace Council, so there is no reason to get ahead of the “older brother.”
Lukashenka cannot afford to demonstratively disobey Putin. Hence the refusal of the invitation. And an attempt to smooth the situation by sending Minister Ryzhankou to the United States instead. Or perhaps it was Moscow itself that advised such a move, since it is still unclear how President Trump would react to such a substitution — especially if leaders of all 27 states currently included in the Peace Council arrive in Washington in person.
If so, if Lukashenka was indeed warned against “rash steps” by Putin, then the “logistical difficulties” mentioned by Eismant also become clear. The route through EU airspace is closed due to sanctions. The only possible route would be over Russian territory. But if Moscow “recommended” not flying, then reaching the United States becomes impossible.
The Gaza Issue
According to Axios, at the first Peace Council meeting the White House plans to discuss the implementation of the second stage of the ceasefire agreement in Gaza. For Lukashenka, this issue holds no particular interest.
The Belarusian politician has his own goals and expectations regarding the Peace Council. Lukashenka has stated outright that his main objective is to stand next to Donald Trump and help him establish peace in Ukraine. Getting into negotiations on ending the Russian-Ukrainian war — by any means necessary — is genuinely important to Lukashenka. Gaza, by contrast, holds little appeal. Why waste time on it? Better to decline and let Ryzhankou attend.
At first glance, this too seems illogical. If you want to build relations with Trump, do not turn your back on his initiatives. Follow in his wake, hoping to gain favor. One could at least listen to discussions about Gaza among respected leaders. But there are pitfalls here as well.
Pay A Billion
Donald Trump intends not only to discuss Gaza at the upcoming Peace Council meeting, but also to raise funds for rebuilding the devastated enclave.
This changes the picture entirely. Lukashenka has stated that participation in the Peace Council does not require payment during the first three years. He has also said that he expects Belarus to be able to work in the organization for free even after that period. But what happens now? At some point, responding to Trump’s call, those present will reach into their pockets — not for a few hundred dollars, and perhaps not for a full billion, but for substantial sums. What is the Belarusian politician supposed to do? The money is hard to part with, and there is never enough of it anyway. Sit there and blush? Better let Ryzhankou blush instead, and then see how things develop.
In any case, whichever of these hypotheses turns out to be closer to the truth — or even if the real reason is something we have not considered — the refusal of Trump’s invitation does not look like a rational decision. Snubbing the U.S. president could easily disappoint him. And this move is unlikely to add any points for Alyaksandr Lukashenka in the foreign policy calculations of the American president. Which, of course, will only please Moscow.
