The international non-governmental organization Genocide Watch has classified the situation in Belarus as stage six — “polarization” — and stage eight — “persecution” — under its 10-stage model of processes that can lead to genocide and mass violence. The assessment is contained in the organization’s new country report, published in August 2026.
The authors of the report note that Aliaksandr Lukashenka has systematically concentrated power for more than three decades and turned Belarus into an authoritarian state. Constitutional changes, restrictions on the activities of political parties, state control over electoral bodies, as well as the persecution and exile of opposition politicians have led to the elimination of genuine political competition.
The situation deteriorated significantly after the 2020 presidential election and mass protests against the official results. Peaceful demonstrations were accompanied by mass arrests and violence by security forces, the report says.
In 2023, the authorities required all political parties to undergo re-registration. As a result, only four state-loyal parties remained in the country. That same year, legislation allowed the authorities to strip people who had left the country of their Belarusian citizenship if they had been charged under articles related to “extremism.”
The January 2025 presidential election, in which Lukashenka was declared the winner with 87% of the vote, was held amid extreme repression and an absence of genuine opponents, Genocide Watch says. The organization describes the election as another rigged vote.
Up To 600 Journalists Were Forced To Leave
The authors characterize the current political situation in Belarus as a combination of corruption, repression and state violence. Independent media have been virtually eliminated in the country, and the activities of civil society organizations have been suppressed.
According to data cited in the report, there were 879 political prisoners in Belarus in August 2026. In total, 4,732 people have been recognized as political prisoners since 2020.
Between 500 and 600 journalists were forced to leave Belarus.
Genocide Watch says the authorities portray political opponents, human rights defenders, journalists and civil society representatives as threats that must be eliminated. On this basis, the organization places Belarus at stage six of its model — “polarization.”
Ongoing surveillance, arrests and torture of people whom the authorities consider their opponents correspond, according to the organization, to stage eight — “persecution.”
Repression Is Linked To Alliance With Russia
The report notes that domestic repression in Belarus is closely linked to the Lukashenka regime’s relations with Russia.
Belarusian authorities allowed Russian troops to use the country’s territory during the full-scale invasion of Ukraine and are persecuting Belarusians who oppose the war or support Ukraine.
State institutions spread pro-Russian narratives and increasingly restrict the Belarusian language, culture and independent interpretation of history, the document says.
As a result, Belarus remains a highly centralized authoritarian state. Systematic repression creates an atmosphere of fear, prevents citizens from freely participating in public life and violates their rights to freedom of expression, peaceful assembly and personal security, the authors conclude.
Organization Calls For Release Of Political Prisoners
Genocide Watch called on the Belarusian authorities to unconditionally release all people imprisoned for political reasons and to end politically motivated trials, incommunicado detention, torture and intimidation.
The organization recommends that the international community continue supporting Belarusian human rights defenders, journalists, forced emigrants and victims of state repression.
The authors also call for those responsible to be held criminally accountable through the application of universal jurisdiction and other mechanisms provided by law.
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Genocide Watch is an independent non-governmental organization founded in the United States in 1999 by genocide researcher Gregory Stanton. It monitors the risks of genocide and mass violence. The organization’s assessments are not decisions by the United Nations or an international court and do not in themselves constitute a legal determination that genocide is taking place.
The organization has issued warnings concerning Belarus since at least September 2020. In January 2022, it also classified the country as being at the “polarization” and “persecution” stages.
