Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service says the Kremlin is systematically creating conditions for Russian citizens to move to Belarus in order to finally resolve the “Belarusian issue” in its favor.
According to the intelligence service, since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, around 90% of the migration flow to Belarus has consisted of Russian citizens.
“Moscow is actively creating preconditions for loyal citizens to move to Belarus — and it is doing so systematically, with a long-term perspective in mind. These are moderate representatives of Russian society, not pro-Putin activists. It is precisely these people who have a chance to successfully assimilate in a foreign, but not hostile, territory and, if necessary, turn into a critical mass of ‘native Russian population in Belarus’ — the kind that will need protection because of the need to study the Belarusian language. The scenario is familiar, and so are the tools,” the agency claims.
The country is artificially creating unbearable living conditions for liberally minded citizens who are ready to relocate but do not plan to emigrate to the West. Migration triggers include internet and social media blocking, criminal prosecution for criticizing the army and authorities, and non-competitive elections. At the same time, moving to Belarus is being actively promoted on social media as an attractive alternative — relatively free, close, and not perceived as emigration.
The authors note that Belarus formally remains an independent state and, since forced resettlement as in Soviet times is impossible, Russia has chosen another path.
“In Russia, unacceptable living conditions are being artificially created for moderate Russians who are ready to relocate but do not plan to emigrate to distant foreign countries. The mechanism is simple: the state consistently and methodically makes life unbearable for liberals, leaving them no choice but to leave. But it is a departure that is controlled and directed in a way convenient for Moscow,” the statement says.
As a recent example of pressure on liberals, the intelligence service cites a bill adopted by the State Duma on March 24 that предусматривает up to three years in prison for denying the genocide of the Soviet people. Other powerful migration triggers include internet and social media blocking, punishment for “fake news” about the Russian army and the policies of modern Russia, and the lack of electoral alternatives.
Thus, the Ukrainian intelligence service notes, Moscow is solving two tasks at once: getting rid of dissenting citizens and methodically strengthening its influence over Belarus with a long-term perspective in mind.
