Николай Статкевич
Mikalai Statkevich has launched a Telegram channel and published an extensive analytical text in Belarusian and English in which he advances the thesis that Russia is deliberately turning Belarus into a nuclear target.
In his article “Apocalypse Tomorrow. Death Zone on the ‘Balcony,’” Statkevich argues that decision-making mechanisms in the Kremlin are based on propaganda stereotypes and exclude the participation of independent experts. In particular, he notes that the belief in the existence of a “triune Russian people” led to a miscalculation of Ukrainians’ reaction to the invasion. According to him, the Kremlin is making the same mistake with regard to Belarusians.
In the politician’s view, within such a system the decision to launch a war, including one involving nuclear weapons, is highly probable, and the risk of Russia unleashing a war with the West is also significant.
Statkevich explains the deployment of Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus, including Iskander missiles and the Oreshnik system, by the following Kremlin logic: to carry out a pre-emptive nuclear strike on Europe from Belarusian territory, calculating that Western countries would prefer to retaliate against Belarus rather than against Russia with its strategic nuclear arsenal. This, he argues, would allow Moscow to preserve its own territory intact.
Statkevich calls on Belarusians, regardless of their political views, to unite in order to prevent this scenario from being realised.