"Герань-2", или Shahed 136. Иллюстративное фото
Russia and Belarus are creating conditions to justify launching drones at Ukraine from Belarusian territory. This is how the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) comments on statements made on Tuesday at a CSTO event by Belarusian Security Council State Secretary Aliaksandr Valfovich.
Valfovich said that 116 attempts by Ukrainian drones to cross the Belarusian border had been recorded over the course of a week and also referred to deliberate attempts to strike border infrastructure.
ISW notes that there is no buildup of Belarusian forces on the border sufficient for a ground invasion. Russia also does not have reserves to support such an operation. At the same time, Russia may return to the practice of using Belarusian territory to launch drones against targets in Ukraine.
“Russia may instead use the reported instances of Ukrainian drones in Belarusian airspace to justify using Belarusian territory to conduct ‘retaliatory’ strikes against Ukraine.
Belarusian territory would allow Russia to conduct sustained drone strikes against Ukrainian ground lines of communication in western and northwestern Ukraine, which Russian drones currently cannot easily strike with high precision and large payloads.
The ability of Russian forces to use Belarusian territory for strikes may enable Shahed-type drones and cheaper Molniya-type drones to strike the M-06 highway running through western Ukrainian regions, including key supply routes from Poland to Ukraine and the railway connecting Poland and Ukraine.
Russian forces already strike western Ukrainian regions from Russian territory, but launching drones from Belarus would allow Russian forces to operate remotely piloted Shahed and Molniya drones, increasing their accuracy and ability to strike moving targets along Ukrainian GLOCs.
Ukrainian officials reported that on December 22, 2025, a Russian drone operator based in Belarus conducted an FPV strike on a Ukrainian freight train near Korosten in Zhytomyr Region, approximately 50 kilometres south of the Belarusian border.
Valfovich’s statements and recent Ukrainian warnings regarding Belarus indicate that Russia is creating information conditions for the further use of Belarus in pursuit of its military objectives, including strikes on strategically important lines of communication in the rear of western Ukraine”, the ISW publication states.