Иллюстративное изображение сгенерировано с помощью ИИ
After the start of a joint U.S.-Israeli operation against Iran and the ayatollah regime, Aliaksandr Lukashenka found himself caught between two fires — states he would prefer not to quarrel with are involved in the conflict on both sides. This likely explains the unusual restraint shown by the Belarusian politician in assessing the war in Iran and the Middle East.
On the morning of February 28, the United States and Israel launched a large-scale military operation against Iran. As President Donald Trump stated, its goal is to eliminate threats emanating from the Iranian authorities. In the first hours of the war, the allies managed to eliminate a significant part of Iran’s political and military leadership, including the leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Commander-in-Chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Mohammad Pakpour, Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council Admiral Ali Shamkhani, Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces Abdolrahim Mousavi, and Defense Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh.
In response, Iran attacked Israel and U.S. allies in the Persian Gulf. Iranian missiles and drones struck Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, Qatar, the UAE and Oman. Iranian authorities stated that they were targeting not the states of the region but exclusively U.S. military facilities located on their territory. However, according to news agencies, at least three people were killed in the UAE as a result of Iranian air attacks and more than fifty were injured. The country’s Defense Ministry said Iran launched 165 ballistic missiles and 541 drones at the UAE. Most were intercepted, but some penetrated air defenses and caused damage. In Dubai, the international airport and the five-star Burj Al Arab hotel were hit. Drone debris fell on residential buildings. In Abu Dhabi, the BBC reported, a woman and a child were injured after fragments of an intercepted drone struck the facade of Etihad Towers.
UAE presidential adviser Anwar Gargash sharply criticized Tehran, calling the attacks on Persian Gulf countries a miscalculation. “This has isolated Iran at a critical moment. Your war is not with your neighbors,” Gargash said.
Last Sunday, Iranian drones attacked the Omani port of Duqm on the Arabian Sea coast. One drone hit a residential building, while debris from another fell near fuel tanks at the port without causing damage. One person was injured in the raid.
Iran’s attack on countries in the Persian Gulf friendly to the Belarusian regime puts Aliaksandr Lukashenka in a difficult position.
Until recently, official Minsk was discussing military cooperation with both Iran and the UAE. Today the situation has become more complicated. A choice of sides is required, but making one is undesirable.
If the Belarusian politician were to support Iran, he would risk damaging relations with Oman and the UAE. If he expressed support for those states, Tehran — which also maintains partnership relations with official Minsk — would harbor resentment. Moscow, for which Iran is one of its closest allies, would also be unlikely to welcome such a turn of events.
Condemning the United States, thereby jeopardizing relations with President Trump and his administration that have only just begun to improve, is also unwise. And so he remains silent, waiting for further developments.
The war is now in its third day, and Lukashenka has yet to comment publicly on the landmark conflict. This is entirely uncharacteristic of him, given both the fact of war and the numerous casualties among Iran’s leadership. On the day hostilities began, he was visiting the Lahoysk district but did not mention the U.S. and Israeli strikes on Tehran. Today, Lukashenka received Murmansk Region Governor Andrey Chibis in Minsk. Despite his habit of using such meetings, including for high-profile foreign policy statements, the war in Iran did not come up.
Only by evening did it become known that Lukashenka had sent condolences to Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian over the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
“The spiritual leader remained faithful to his people until his last breath and courageously accepted martyrdom, defending the sovereignty and independence of Iran.” “We share the pain of this loss and express solidarity with Iran at this difficult moment,” the message said.
At the same time, it contained no condemnation of U.S.-Israeli aggression, nor any wishes for the Iranian regime to endure and prevail — nothing Tehran might have hoped for. Rather, Lukashenka appeared simply to be going through the motions.
His message appeared even more restrained than the condolences sent the previous day by Speaker of the House of Representatives Ihar Siarhieyenka to Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. Siarhieyenka at least noted the Belarusian side’s “principled position” against any aggressive actions and wished the Iranian side “a swift resolution of the military conflict by peaceful means and normalization of the situation in the country.” Lukashenka’s message did not include even that.
Earlier, the Belarusian Foreign Ministry also attempted to sit on two chairs, stating it was following “with concern” the “escalation of the situation between Israel and Iran, which has also affected friendly Gulf states.” The ministry called on the countries involved in the exchange of strikes to abandon dangerous confrontation and return to resolving disagreements through political and diplomatic means.
That essentially concluded the official reaction to events in Iran. It appears to reflect a desire not to overstep — to observe the proprieties toward Iran while avoiding undue attention from the leadership of states toward which Iranian missiles and drones are currently flying.
On the domestic information front, the situation looks somewhat different.
The pro-government party Belaya Rus called on “all reasonable political forces” to unite in condemning the strikes on Iran.
The state news agency BelTA actively quotes Iranian sources, reporting on IRGC attacks on Israel and civilian casualties in Iran. It covers protests against the war with Iran in New York and Vienna, without mentioning numerous rallies by the Iranian diaspora celebrating Khamenei’s death.
Pro-government propagandists have gone even further. Vadzim Gigin said that “‘peacemaker’ Trump has started a new war,” placing the word “peacemaker” in quotation marks. Aliaksandr Shpakouski lamented “the final consolidation of terrorist practices in the policies of certain states,” wished “courage and resilience to the Iranian people and the country’s leadership,” and asked what experts thought about “who is next” after Cuba, seemingly hinting at the Belarusian regime.
As usual, Ryhor Azaronak did not hold back. First, in verse, he expressed hope that “the skyscrapers of Manhattan” would be covered by “the storm of Islam.” He continued: “Fight, sacred Iran, against you stands the Epstein regime, pedophile-satanists. This is the very Antichrist Dajjal.” He concluded with the call: “All of us around the world today say — Allahu Akbar!”
This product for a domestic audience, unlike the external one, leaves no doubt about unequivocal support for the Iranian regime. However, the outcries of propagandists carry little apparent cost for official Minsk. Siarhieyenka’s statements will likely be lost in the information flow and unlikely to attract attention in the UAE or Oman. As for the appeals of Belaya Rus, Azarenok and others, they are unlikely to go beyond the domestic information space.
Lukashenka’s silence, however, is hardly surprising. He places great hopes on both the UAE and Oman. He visits these two Persian Gulf states with notable regularity, often accompanied by his family.
Relations with the Sultanate of Oman are overseen personally by his eldest son, Viktar Lukashenka. A joint Belarusian-Omani investment fund in Minsk to finance projects in Belarus, construction of a new pulp and paper mill in Belarus, a logistics hub for Belarusian goods in Oman, and a trilateral project to establish joint production of complex fertilizers with Algeria — these and other projects were discussed just a couple of months ago with Sultan Haitham bin Tariq Al Said. At the All-Belarusian People’s Assembly, Lukashenka spoke of plans to build a resort in that country.
Viktar Lukashenka visited the UAE as recently as January 2026. There, too, plans are ambitious. In June last year, Belarus and the UAE signed an agreement on trade in services and investment. The UAE was described as Belarus’s main trading partner among the Arab Gulf states.
And this is only what has been officially announced. The unusual level of activity around the UAE and Oman may indicate other interests of the Lukashenka family in these states. The UAE is considered one of the fastest-growing global centers of diamond trade. It is there that Aftrade DMCC is registered, a company linked to another trusted businessman from the circle of Lukashenka and Viktar Sheiman — Aleksandr Zingman. Among other things, he extracts resources in Africa, particularly in Zimbabwe, a country of heightened interest to the Belarusian politician.
There has been speculation that the Lukashenka clan actively invests its money in the UAE and Oman.
And so the politician must now tread carefully, hoping the regional conflict will not drag on and that he will not have to choose between Iran, the UAE and Oman. Perhaps he will manage to remain silent and slip through.
Or perhaps not. After the shock of the first strikes subsides, the leadership of the Persian Gulf states friendly to the Belarusian regime is likely to analyze who stood with them, who stood against them, and who simply remained silent. Thus, the question of whether Oman and the Emirates will still welcome Lukashenka’s money may no longer have a clear answer. Silence is golden. But sometimes it is not.
***
The author’s opinions and assessments may not coincide with the position of the Reform.news editorial board.