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A warming of relations between Alyaksandr Lukashenka and the United States, as well as the West in general, cannot be ruled out, but there is little room for normalisation while the Russian-Ukrainian war continues. This opinion was expressed in an interview with RMF FM by former political prisoner, journalist and one of the leaders of the Polish minority, Andrzej Poczobut. According to him, in upcoming rounds of negotiations the American side may discuss not only the release of political prisoners but also the normalisation of the situation inside Belarus.
“Anything is possible. The issue is that everything again depends on how the situation in Ukraine develops. Because as long as the war continues, the possibilities for warming relations and for normalising relations are very limited. So far, the situation is such that, just like the prisoner exchange, this has had no impact on the level of fear in Belarusian society, because arrests are still continuing.
And I understand that perhaps now, during this round of negotiations, an attempt will be made — this is my prediction — simply to achieve a situation in which conditions in Belarus do not worsen. That is, to stop the repressions inside Belarus so that the situation inside the country… We are no longer talking about the fate of individual people, but about the situation inside the country… so that it normalises and calms down,” he said.
At the same time, Andrzej Poczobut is sceptical about the idea of pulling Belarus and the Lukashenka regime out from under the control of Putin.
“Well, in my view, this was never a realistic scenario. The fact is that Alyaksandr Lukashenka has certain views, and those views are very closely tied to Russia. Alyaksandr Lukashenka says that Moscow is his capital. He says that Belarusians are Russians with a quality mark, and so on”, he said.
In his opinion, Lukashenka adheres to the ideology of West-Russism and the concept of the triune people. This is his conscious choice, which, together with strong economic dependence, rules out a radical pivot.
“And in my view, that would be unrealistic. When it comes to improving relations and easing tensions with the West so that there is not such tension with the West, this is possible, it was possible then and it is possible now”, he added.
Poczobut also noted that Belarus has a chance to achieve genuine independence from Russia in the event of a major defeat for Moscow, when it would be preoccupied with internal problems. In his opinion, this was the case during the collapse of the Russian Empire and the dissolution of the Soviet Union.
“And if such problems arise, Belarus will once again have a chance to achieve genuine independence. If this does not happen, then unfortunately I am pessimistic, and in my view this dependence on Russia will remain”, he said.
In the interview, Andrzej Poczobut once again confirmed that he intends to return to Belarus. According to him, he received corresponding assurances during the exchange. He was also read Lukashenka’s order granting him a pardon. Therefore, there are formally no grounds for detaining him upon his return to Belarus, although he does not rule out any scenario.
“Unlike the overwhelming majority of political prisoners taken out of Belarus, I have a Belarusian passport. First of all. Secondly, I was pardoned by Lukashenka, although I did not submit an application, did not ask for a pardon, did not recognise it, but I was pardoned, and I was informed of this.
And the procedure was even filmed by the officers who read Lukashenka’s decree to me, so formally there are no grounds for putting me in prison. But, you know, there is always a risk, and I am ready to take that risk. The fact is that my place is in Belarus. My place is among the activists of the Union of Poles. The situation there is not easy, and I believe that my presence in Belarus will be very useful. It will help, it will help the Union of Poles”, he said.