Изображение сгенерировано с помощью ИИ
Aliaksandr Lukashenka received Belarus’ Permanent Representative to the United Nations Valiantsin Rybakou for a briefing. The meeting, as well as the statements made during it, suggest that despite earlier concerns, the Belarus-US negotiating track has not been frozen after all.
The main topic of discussion was relations with the United States. In the absence of a Belarusian ambassador in Washington, Rybakou is one of Minsk’s key negotiators with the US side.
Lukashenka made no secret of his interest in the matter. “The United Nations is a powerful organisation, and of course we have interests there. But I will not hide the fact that what interests me more at the moment is Belarusian-American relations,” he told Rybakou.
There was nothing extraordinary about Rybakou’s visit to Minsk. The Belarusian capital is currently hosting the annual seminar for heads of Belarusian diplomatic missions and consular offices, and the country’s permanent representative to the UN was naturally attending.
What is more significant is that the meeting between Lukashenka and Rybakou received extensive publicity. This may indicate that Minsk wanted to signal to Washington its willingness to continue dialogue under certain conditions, the details of which remain undisclosed.
“Just a few days ago, another set of specific proposals from the United States was formulated and presented to us. The President has reviewed this information and issued the necessary instructions to the bodies responsible for implementing these proposals,” Rybakou said after briefing Lukashenka.
It appears that, knowing Rybakou would soon travel to Minsk, the US negotiators sent a package of proposals for Lukashenka through him.
Rybakou said that after returning to New York he plans to meet with US presidential special envoy John Coale and deliver Lukashenka’s response. He also did not rule out further visits by Coale to Minsk.
This suggests that the Belarus-US negotiating track is emerging from a pause that arose for reasons that remain unclear. It has gained renewed momentum, probably because one side has shown a willingness to make concessions. It seems unlikely that side is Washington.
At one point, it appeared that negotiations between representatives of the US administration and Lukashenka had either reached a deadlock or been placed on hold. John Coale’s anticipated visit to Belarus did not take place in either May or June. The process of releasing Belarusian political prisoners also stalled. Although Coale himself promised further releases and, when asked whether work on securing them had been suspended, responded simply, “No.” Nevertheless, time passed, Coale did not appear in Minsk, and political prisoners remained behind bars.
One can only speculate about the reasons for the pause. Perhaps Coale was unable to secure everything the Belarusian authorities demanded in exchange for releasing political prisoners. This may have included reopening transit routes for Belarusian potash fertilisers through Lithuania, Poland or Ukraine. As early as May, reports emerged that the United States had asked those countries to lift sanctions on Belarusian potash. Coale also urged the Lithuanian authorities to agree to dialogue with the official Belarusian authorities at the level of deputy foreign ministers.
That did not happen either, which may indirectly point to the limits of what John Coale and his team are able to achieve. It appears that neither Donald Trump, nor US Vice President J.D. Vance, nor Secretary of State Marco Rubio, nor other senior US administration officials are significantly engaged in the Belarus portfolio. In reality, there appears to be little interest in Belarus or Belarusian affairs at the highest levels, leaving John Coale to act largely on his own. It was not the top US leadership that urged Vilnius, Warsaw and Kyiv to make concessions to Minsk, but Coale and his team. They were unsuccessful.
It is also possible that the US administration intended to use evangelist Franklin Graham as an intermediary. He visited Minsk in May and met Lukashenka. That plan, however, also appears to have encountered difficulties.
In addition, one of the main US negotiators on Belarus, former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Christopher Smith, has been reassigned and is expected to become head of the OSCE Mission in Moldova.
There have been some limited signs of progress. A few days ago, the US Office of Foreign Assets Control removed the US subsidiary of the Belarusian Steel Works from its sanctions list. However, Minsk had been expecting more substantial results. Those failed to materialise, which is why the negotiating track appeared to stall.
Yesterday’s meeting between Lukashenka and Rybakou, however, suggests that the process has begun moving again. It appears that the Belarusian authorities may now be prepared to accept some form of compromise.
While receiving Rybakou, Lukashenka described the “current situation” as well as the “momentum and prospects” in relations with the United States as “quite promising.” This can be interpreted as a sign of the Belarusian politician’s interest in continuing dialogue with the American side.
Also noteworthy was a remark Lukashenka made during yesterday’s meeting with Rybakou: “I read every document you pass on to me word for word, down to every comma. I have formed certain impressions and opinions about the United States of America and its wishes. I know how to read between the lines, and it is not the lines themselves that matter, but the spirit of how the leadership of the United States thinks. Therefore, even if John is trying to embellish something, there is no need to do that. I am an experienced person and I know how things really are.”
So what exactly is Coale trying to “embellish”? His own capabilities? The willingness of the US leadership to make significant concessions? One can only speculate. However, judging by Lukashenka’s remarks, he now appears ready to accept the way the US leadership “thinks” and continue the conversation based on reality — on how things actually are. Perhaps even to make some concessions himself. To release the “handbrake” of inflated expectations.
That would be logical, because time is running short.
November this year remains something of a deadline for the Belarus-US negotiating track.
First, the mandate of special envoy John Coale expires around that time. It is no coincidence that he expressed hope that he would be able to secure the release of all Belarusian political prisoners by the end of the year.
After that, the US Congress will have to extend the special envoy’s mandate. However, there is no guarantee that lawmakers will be interested in keeping the position or agree to appoint the non-career diplomat Coale to it again. Yet, whatever the case, he has managed to establish a working relationship with Lukashenka.
Second, the United States will hold its midterm elections in November, and their outcome is highly unpredictable. Donald Trump himself could ultimately become a “lame duck”, while US foreign policy could undergo more or less significant changes.
It makes sense to strike while the iron is hot, and Lukashenka apparently understands that. On the other hand, with November approaching, it would not be in his interest to make major concessions. If he gives up all his trump cards now, there is no knowing how events will unfold afterwards. Sanctions that are lifted today could just as easily be reimposed tomorrow. How can he obtain the maximum in return for giving away the minimum? The bargaining now is probably over exactly those proportions and percentages of concessions.
Another important date could be September. That month was reportedly expected to see another summit of the Peace Council established by Donald Trump, to which the US president had invited Lukashenka. However, the date of that summit has not yet been confirmed. Moreover, according to the Financial Times, as of late spring, despite promises, the organisation had still not received any funding from donor countries. Still, one can speculate: perhaps Rybakou brought Lukashenka an official invitation. If the summit does take place, Lukashenka would be better off arriving to meet Trump with something tangible to offer.
Be that as it may, it appears that Minsk has decided to speed up its decision-making. Further delays have become risky. It may have had to scale back some of its own ambitions. If so, we may soon see John Coale in the Belarusian capital after all. And political prisoners — if not all of them, then at least a large group — may regain their freedom. A complete end to repression as the result of a deal seems unlikely, but any new releases would already be a highly significant development.
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The views and assessments expressed by the author may not coincide with the editorial position of Reform.news.