Заседание президиума Совета министров. Скриншот видео
On 29 July, the Presidium of the Council of Ministers reviewed a package of forecast documents setting the key economic targets for next year.
The government plans export growth in goods and services of 2.9% in 2027, investment growth of 3.1%, inflation of no more than 6%, gross domestic product of around 360 billion Belarusian roubles, foreign exchange reserves of at least $12.8 billion, non-performing bank assets of no more than 10%, and growth in investment financing of at least 13%.
The government and the National Bank have been tasked with increasing GDP, raising real household incomes, boosting fixed capital investment and exports of goods and services, while keeping inflation under control, according to the government’s press service.
Economy Minister Yury Chabatar said the 2027 forecast had been prepared “under conditions of significant turbulence.” The projections were adjusted to reflect the economic situation in CIS countries and other more distant partner markets.
The main socio-economic targets for next year are linked to implementing Belarus’ development programme through 2030.
“Implementation of 20 state programmes, 18 sectoral programmes and seven regional programmes will continue. The key parameters of next year’s forecast revolve around all of these priorities.
It should be noted that the forecast was prepared under conditions of significant turbulence. We see that external conditions are no longer changing every month or every week, but every day. Compared with last year, when we prepared the five-year programme, the external environment has changed substantially.
Global GDP growth is slowing, as all agencies are saying today. Our main trading partners are lowering their growth forecasts, and naturally we are responding to that. One of the new features of this forecast is that we have assessed the external environment of our other economic partners, including CIS countries and more distant markets,” Chabatar said.
The government plans to accelerate its production and investment programme. Ministries, state industrial groups and regional authorities will be tasked with speeding up investment projects aimed at producing goods for export.
“The main export target is around 102.9%. The primary emphasis will be on increasing exports of services, which are expected to grow by slightly more than 4%, driven by our priority sectors, including tourism and IT,” the economy minister said.
“As for the investment programme, the main focus is on achieving our five-year targets, including constructing around 4 million square metres of housing, with priority given to rental housing amounting to around 900,000 square metres. This also represents growth compared with the current year,” Chabatar added.
More than 700 commercial investment projects are scheduled to be implemented in 2027.
“There is strong demand for the new tourism products we have promoted this year. Businesses have developed an appetite for these opportunities, and we see substantial interest. We are confident that commercial projects, with growth of around 7%, will provide the economic expansion we are targeting,” the minister said.
GDP is projected to reach around 360 billion Belarusian roubles in 2027, while inflation is expected to remain below 6%, compared with the 2026 target of no more than 7%.
“This will strengthen the country’s overall financial resources and, above all, improve the wellbeing of our citizens. Real incomes and real wages are forecast to grow by slightly more than 3%. Keeping inflation at around 6% will also support growth in real incomes,” Chabatar said.
Deputy Chairman of the National Bank’s Management Board Andrei Kartun outlined the targets for monetary policy, saying the primary objective remains maintaining price stability.
The share of non-performing assets is proposed to be capped at 10%, while foreign exchange reserves are expected to remain at $12.8 billion.
“Taking into account all of the country’s external obligations, this is a sufficient minimum level to ensure safe functioning,” Kartun said.
“Another indicator of financial stability is the reliability and availability of payment systems, ensuring there are no disruptions and that transactions can be carried out virtually around the clock, with only limited technical or technological interruptions,” the National Bank official added.
Investment financing is expected to increase by at least 13% in 2027.