Lithuanian Presidential Adviser: Belarus Is Entangled in Russia’s Embrace but Should Not Be Written Off

Amid the easing of U.S. sanctions policy toward Belarus, Chief Adviser to the Lithuanian President Deividas Matulionis said that neither Lithuania nor its European Union partners have received any pressure from the administration of Donald Trump to revise their own sanctions policy toward Minsk.

“I want to state responsibly that so far there has been no pressure whatsoever, not even the slightest, on us or on other European partners to change policy toward Belarus. There has been no such discussion. And this makes me optimistic,” he said in the politika.lt podcast.

The adviser noted that European sanctions against Belarus have recently been extended, and the status quo remains in place. According to him, if, against the backdrop of improving U.S.-Belarus relations, the next step had been pressure on European partners to ease sanctions, the situation would have been significantly more complicated. For now, this is not happening, and Lithuania feels relatively calm.

Assessing the Trump administration’s policy in general, Matulionis described it as based on “uncertainty and unpredictability.” According to him, this is not necessarily a bad thing, as adversaries also cannot always clearly understand the goals and possible next steps of the American side.

“U.S. policy should be judged by concrete actions, not words. And so far we do not see actions that would cause us concern,” he said.

Speaking about possible outcomes of a rapprochement between the United States and Belarus, the adviser expressed the view that the main result could be the release of all political prisoners. He does not yet see any deeper systemic changes. According to him, Belarus continues to assist Russia in the field of electronic warfare, its military system is fully integrated into Russia’s, and hybrid attacks against neighbors — weather balloons, detained trucks, and instrumentalized migration — continue.

Asked whether the Americans are trying to “buy out” Aliaksandr Lukashenka along with the entire country, Matulionis responded evasively, suggesting that a strategic design — creating additional dilemmas for Russia — should not be ruled out.

“I do not agree with those who say that everything is coordinated in advance and that Lukashenka agrees everything with Vladimir Putin before meeting the Americans. I think things are a bit more complex,” he said.

In his view, Lukashenka, who has been in power for 32 years, has always managed to navigate difficult situations and may be counting on improved relations with the United States as an additional lifeline.

Matulionis also stressed that Lithuania is not ready to begin political negotiations with Minsk.

“These are problems created in Belarus, and they must resolve them,” he said, adding that technical contacts with the Belarusian side have not been suspended, but there are no grounds for political dialogue.

The adviser formulated Lithuania’s long-term national interest regarding Belarus as follows:

“A democratic, peaceful Belarus and, accordingly, security from the east. This is, of course, a difficult goal to achieve, but we must be optimists. Who knows what the world will look like. I still believe that Belarusian society differs from Russian society in that it has much less imperial thinking.”

“And this gives some hope. Of course, this is a very complex issue, because the further it goes, the deeper Belarus is immersed in Russia’s embrace. But it should not be so easily written off, because even the Russian people themselves cannot be written off 100 percent. It is unknown what will happen there in 100 or 200 years, and Belarusians — even more so. They are still imbued with the spirit of the Grand Duchy of Lithuania and Western civilization,” he added. “After all, Kastus Kalinouski is their hero.

This is a hero who said that the Belarusian people must be free. We must somehow encourage precisely such ideas — that this is a proud people, worthy of freedom, and essentially a European people. If we speak, as Russia tries to do, that this is some kind of dialect and that these are the same Russians, then by ignoring the Belarusian people, we ourselves will help Russia.”