ISW: Oreshnik Strike Threat Is the Kremlin’s Response to Its Own Vulnerability

Ukrainian outlet RBC-Ukraine reported on June 12, citing an informed source in the Ukrainian government, that the United States had warned Ukraine about the threat of a strike by Russia’s Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile. According to an assessment by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), such a launch would fit a pattern in which the Kremlin sharply intensified its long-range strike campaign against Ukraine after Ukrainian attacks on Russian cities exposed the inability of Vladimir Putin to protect Moscow, St. Petersburg and other cities. The authors note that Putin was forced to ask Zelenskyy for permission to hold the May 9 parade in Moscow.

“The Kremlin’s possible decision to launch another Oreshnik at Ukraine would be part of this escalation pattern and would likely be an effort to posture strength following the June 12 Russia Day holiday,” the analysts said.

On Russia Day itself, Putin met with military personnel, spoke of a war against NATO and promised retaliatory strikes against Ukraine. According to ISW, the meeting was intended to offset reputational damage following the scaled-back parade and Ukrainian strikes on St. Petersburg during the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum.