IMF Raises Belarus’ GDP Growth Forecast to 1.9%

Reform.news Editorial Team · 13 October 2026, 07:29

https://reform.news/en/imf-raises-belarus-gdp-growth-forecast-to-1-9/

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its estimate for Belarus’ GDP growth in 2026 in its October World Economic Outlook. Under the revised forecast, Belarus’ GDP will grow by 1.9%. Compared with the April report, the estimate has been raised by 0.7 percentage points.

Inflation is expected to reach 5.1% this year (down 1.3 percentage points from the April forecast), the current account deficit is projected at 3.2% of GDP (up 0.5 percentage points), and unemployment at 2.5% (down 0.4 percentage points).

For 2027, the IMF forecasts Belarus’ GDP growth at 1.2% (up 0.2 percentage points), inflation at 5.1% (down 1.1 percentage points), a current account deficit of 3.4% (unchanged) and an unemployment rate of 2.5% (down 0.4 percentage points).

The 2026 socio-economic development forecast envisages GDP growth of 2.8%, while inflation is not expected to exceed 7%. For 2027, Belarus has set a target GDP growth rate of 1.9% and an inflation rate of no more than 6%.

In its new report, the IMF also raised its forecast for global economic growth in 2027.

“Global economic activity has once again demonstrated its resilience. The technology boom, buffers and adaptation have helped mitigate the damage caused by geopolitical shocks. Global growth is projected to slow to 3.1% in 2026 and recover to 3.4% in 2027. Global inflation is projected to rise significantly to 4.7% in 2026 before falling to 4.1% in 2027. The most challenging outlook is expected for energy-importing countries that are outside the technology sector’s value chain,” the report says.

The global growth forecast for this year was left unchanged from the April report, while the forecast for 2027 was raised by 0.2 percentage points.

In addition to further escalation of geopolitical tensions, the IMF identifies artificial intelligence as a risk to the global economy, noting that its impact could be either positive or negative.

“However, the adjustment capacity that has helped strengthen resilience is not unlimited, and risks are tilted to the downside. Further escalation of conflicts, a reassessment of expectations surrounding artificial intelligence (AI), renewed trade tensions and fiscal vulnerabilities could weaken growth. Conversely, stronger momentum in AI investment and AI-driven productivity gains, as well as a sustained easing of geopolitical and trade tensions, could strengthen growth,” the IMF said.

According to the IMF, advanced economies will grow by 2.1% this year, up 0.3 percentage points from the April report. This includes projected growth of 2.3% in the United States (unchanged), 1.1% in the euro area (unchanged), 0.7% in Japan (unchanged) and 0.8% in the United Kingdom (up 0.5 percentage points).

The IMF forecasts GDP growth of 4.5% in China (up 0.1 percentage points), 7% in India (up 0.5 percentage points) and 0.9% in Russia (down 0.2 percentage points).

GDP growth is projected at 2.7% in Lithuania (down 0.2 percentage points), 2.3% in Latvia (up 0.1 percentage points), 3.4% in Poland (up 0.1 percentage points) and 1% in Ukraine (down 1 percentage point).