Фото: МВФ
The International Monetary Fund lowered its forecast for Belarus’s GDP growth in 2026 in its April World Economic Outlook release.
According to the IMF, the Belarusian economy will grow by 1.2% this year, 0.2 percentage points less than in the October release. Inflation is expected to reach 6.4%, the current account deficit 2.7% of GDP and unemployment 2.9%.
In 2027, the IMF forecasts Belarusian GDP growth of 1%, inflation of 6.2%, a current account deficit of 3.4% and unemployment of 2.9%.
Belarus’s official socio-economic development forecast for 2026 envisages GDP growth of 2.8%, while inflation is not expected to exceed 7%. In reality, Belarusian GDP shrank by 1.2% in January-February, while inflation over the first three months of the year amounted to 6.4%.
The IMF also forecast in its April release that global economic growth will slow to 3.1% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027. The baseline scenario assumes that the war involving the United States and Israel against Iran will remain limited in duration and scale.
“Downside risks dominate the outlook. A longer or larger conflict, deeper geopolitical fragmentation, a reassessment of expectations regarding productivity gains from artificial intelligence, or renewed trade tensions could significantly weaken growth and destabilise financial markets. High public debt and declining trust in institutions further increase vulnerabilities. At the same time, economic activity could rise if productivity growth from AI accelerates or trade tensions ease on a sustained basis,” the report said.
According to the IMF, advanced economies will grow by 1.8% this year, including the United States economy by 2.3%, the eurozone by 1.1%, Japan by 0.7% and Britain by 0.8%.
The IMF forecasts China’s GDP growth at 4.4%, India’s at 6.5% and Russia’s at 1.1%.
Lithuania’s GDP growth is estimated at 2.9%, Latvia’s at 2.2%, Poland’s at 3.3% and Ukraine’s at 2%.