Фото: Минобороны Украины
The possibility of a Russian attack from the north toward Ukraine’s Chernihiv or Kyiv regions depends on mobilization in Russia. This assessment was given in an interview with RBC-Ukraine by Deputy Chief of the Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine’s Defense Ministry Vadym Skibitskyi.
“It will depend on mobilization in Russia, and whether there will be mobilization — we will see only after the elections. Indicators and intelligence signs of mobilization measures will emerge; it is impossible to carry out covert mobilization in our time. But the enemy is ready for it one way or another, since Putin has had a decree in effect since 2022.
Before the elections, they will try to demonstrate some achievements in those areas of the front where they can accomplish something. After that, there may be mobilization”, he said.
According to him, when Russia carried out partial mobilization in October 2022, the first combat units made up of mobilized personnel appeared at the front in December-January.
“So, if the aggressor conducts a new wave of mobilization this year, they could prepare a powerful strike force by around February, at the beginning of next year. And this does not rule out the possibility that the Russian command could organize such an operation in February, knowing Putin’s fondness for symbolic dates.
But these timelines will depend on how many people they mobilize and whether there will be mobilization at all.
Could the enemy launch offensive operations from the north this year? Theoretically, yes, but in practice there are no conditions, no indicators showing that they are ready for such an operation, and there are no troops for it”, Skibitskyi said.
According to him, Russian losses currently exceed the monthly recruitment of contract soldiers. Overall, according to Ukraine’s military intelligence, the Russian grouping consists of 670,000 combat personnel and 65,000 personnel in the operational reserve.