Duck in the Hare, Egg in the Duck: What Lukashenka Is Looking for in Ukraine

One of the key reasons behind Aliaksandr Lukashenka’s shift in rhetoric may be his realization that his own future prospects are, to a significant extent, in Ukraine’s hands.

A great deal is at stake. First and foremost is the Belarusian politician’s participation in negotiations on ending the war. In a recent interview with Al Arabiya, Lukashenka explained how he sees his role at the negotiating table. He dreams of becoming not merely a mediator, but a direct participant in the process. Others can serve as intermediaries; he reserves one of the leading roles for himself.

“We need to survive this conflict, sit down at the negotiating table as three — Lukashenka, Putin and Zelensky — and agree on how we will overcome the consequences of this conflict,” he said.

However, the prospects of Lukashenka taking part in negotiations depend almost entirely on Kyiv’s position. If Volodymyr Zelensky remains firmly opposed and Ukraine’s Western allies support him, breaking into the negotiation process will be extremely difficult for the Belarusian politician. And it is critically important to him. Once the war ends, Lukashenka needs guarantees for his own security. He needs to legitimize himself through participation in negotiations and avoid being left one-on-one with a dissatisfied Vladimir Putin if the outcome of the conflict falls short of Russian expectations.

The problem with these grand ambitions is that Kyiv, at least for now, does not see Lukashenka as a participant in any negotiating process. It has made this clear in various ways, from Zelensky’s refusal to hold negotiations in the Belarusian capital to the recent visit by Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya. Ukrainian leaders and senior military officials repeatedly make sharp statements about official Minsk, likely in part to keep Lukashenka away from future negotiations. Kyiv methodically reminds its allies that the Belarusian regime was and remains a co-aggressor supporting Russia. It still poses a real threat to Ukraine and remains capable not only of supplying goods for Russia’s military-industrial complex and providing its territory for Russian drone attacks on Ukrainian cities, but even of supporting Russian aggression with its own armed forces.

Lukashenka, meanwhile, is trying with all his might to prove the opposite — not only to Ukraine but also to Ukraine’s allies. And it is precisely here, rather than in any sudden awakening of pacifism, that the reason for his rhetorical shift lies. Hence the declaration at the Festival of National Cultures in Hrodna that “we are not going to fight anyone.” Hence the apology to Volodymyr Zelensky and the call to move beyond “grievances and ambitions.”

“I think that Volodymyr Oleksandrovych Zelensky, who is not a foolish man, will finally understand… He will rise above grievances, ambitions and the deaths of thousands upon thousands of people, and we will begin to negotiate,” Lukashenka said in the Al Arabiya interview.

It is unlikely that any leading Western politician, including Donald Trump, is prepared to push aggressively for Lukashenka’s participation in negotiations. On this issue, he needs to secure, if not support, then at least neutrality from Ukraine. It is Ukraine that the Belarusian politician hopes to influence with his recent statements.

Yet the change in Lukashenka’s rhetoric is not driven solely by prospects for participation in peace talks. Ukraine is also capable of creating obstacles for him in other key areas, such as efforts to normalize relations with the European Union.

This is another crucial track for Lukashenka. The United States has lifted some sanctions against the Belarusian regime, including restrictions affecting the potash industry. So far, however, the benefits have been limited because EU sanctions still force potash exports to travel by rail and through overloaded Russian ports. Brussels has shown little willingness to ease its own restrictions.

According to media reports, U.S. officials informally asked Lithuania, Poland and Ukraine to facilitate the transit of Belarusian potash. Washington also reportedly asked Kyiv to persuade European countries to soften sanctions pressure on Belarus. Those requests appear to have produced no results. Yet the very fact that Ukraine was approached suggests that Washington believes Kyiv is capable of influencing the situation.

Lukashenka understands this as well. In his interview with Al Arabiya, he effectively acknowledged that he expects U.S. assistance in improving relations with European countries. According to the Belarusian politician, dialogue is taking place not only with the United States but also, albeit privately, with EU member states.

Those efforts, however, could easily come to nothing if Ukraine objects. For Washington, the Belarus issue remains a low priority. The United States is unlikely to engage in serious bargaining with the European Union over Belarus. It may make requests, but that is probably where its involvement ends.

Kyiv is different. Ukraine can either facilitate warmer relations between Minsk and the EU — which would be a major advantage for the Belarusian authorities — or stand in the way. In the latter case, achieving results would become far more difficult, if not impossible.

Lukashenka realizes that his own fate depends to a large extent on decisions made in Kyiv. That is where the little chest is today, containing the duck, the hare and the egg with the needle hidden inside. At the tip of that needle lies not the death of Koschei the Deathless, but a whole range of troubles and problems that he risks facing. Lukashenka would very much like to obtain the key to that chest, which is why he is trying to soften Ukraine’s position.

The question is whether the status quo that has developed over four and a half years of war can really be changed through conciliatory rhetoric alone. And there are serious doubts as to whether the Belarusian politician is willing — or even capable — of taking actions that would genuinely impress Ukraine and its allies.

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The author’s opinions and assessments may not coincide with the position of the Reform.news editorial board.