Фрагмент обложки доклада BELPOL
The initiative of former security officers BELPOL has published a report on the impact of sanctions on the Belarusian economy, individual industrial sectors and the military-industrial potential.
The document titled “Sanctions: Empirical Impact On The Lukashenka Regime” is based “on an analysis of documents, sectoral data and investigative materials.” The Community of Railway Workers of Belarus also took part in preparing the report.
“In the public discussion around the sanctions against Belarus, the thesis that the sanctions were introduced with the expectation that they would be lifted afterwards is heard more and more often. However, this distorts their initial goals.
The sanctions were introduced as an instrument of pressure on the regime to change specific political and military practices. We are talking primarily about Belarus’ participation in the war against Ukraine, hybrid actions against the EU countries, systemic repression inside the country and the mass appearance of political prisoners. One of the stated goals of the sanctions policy is also the holding of new democratic elections in Belarus.
Accordingly, lifting sanctions without achieving these goals means ending the pressure before regime policy changes,” the annotation to the report states.
The report provides several examples of the impact of sanctions. In particular, the Minsk Bearing Plant was supposed to implement a project called “Creation of Import-Substituting Production for Special Products,” which envisaged launching the production of casings for 152 mm artillery shells. The cost of the project amounted to 14.3 billion Russian rubles. Thirty-two percent of the financing was provided by Russia. The supply of the production line for the project was linked to sanctions evasion, which increased the cost of the final product, the report says.
“The product was intended for purchase by NPK Tekhmash OAO (Russia); however, the market price for an equivalent product in Russia proved to be three times lower.
As a result, by the fall of 2024, the production line was idle. The financial resources of Russian and Belarusian banks were frozen, and Russia did not receive shells from Belarus for the war in Ukraine,” the report states.
BELPOL also cites delays in the delivery of various products for Russian customers under defence contracts, for example sights for armored vehicles.
Sanctions have also affected the quality of military products. In particular, the initiative cites the example of the same sights. Originally they used an encoder manufactured in Taiwan, but due to sanctions its supplies were halted, and the replacement found in China proved to be of lower quality.
BELPOL also links sanctions to the phenomenon of MAZ buses catching fire. Frequent fires were caused by design shortcomings related to replacing Mercedes engines with Chinese Weichai engines.
Because of sanctions, MZKT was unable to receive a batch of 30 chassis from IVECO, while the prepayment of €69,700 was frozen.
The report also describes the consequences of sanctions for Belarusian financial institutions. A separate chapter is devoted to the impact of sanctions on the activities of Belarusian Railways. In particular, due to sanctions Chinese partners of the railway did not fulfil a contract in 2023 for the supply of electric locomotives.
The full document can be found on the initiative’s website.