Belarusian GDP To Grow By 2-2.3% In 2026 – MacroBy
Reform.news Editorial Team · 13 November 2026, 07:56
https://reform.news/en/belarusian-gdp-to-grow-by-2-2-3-in-2026-macroby/MacroBy experts have revised their forecast for Belarusian GDP growth in the latest edition of their quarterly Belarus Economic Monitor.
“GDP growth will reach 2-2.3% in 2026 (with the figure more likely to be close to the upper end of the range) and is forecast at around 1.5% in 2027,” the report says.
In the September edition of the monitor, they gave a wider range for GDP growth this year, forecasting 2-2.5%. The forecast for 2027 remained unchanged.
According to the report’s authors, domestic demand will remain the main driver of economic growth as monetary and fiscal stimulus measures remain in place. Strong growth in real wages, adjusted for inflation, will continue to support elevated consumer activity. However, it will also constrain opportunities for expanding investment.
“Russia’s expected modest economic growth of 1-1.5% in 2027, sanctions-related restrictions and a lack of available labour resources will limit the growth of the Belarusian economy in 2027, even amid accommodative economic policies,” the report notes.
Fiscal and monetary policies will remain stimulative through the end of next year.
“Belarus’s limited growth potential and Russia’s projected modest economic expansion make it difficult to achieve the authorities’ GDP and investment growth targets of 1.9% and 3.1%, respectively, in 2027. In the absence of positive changes in the external environment, moving closer to the targets will require maintaining stimulus measures to support domestic demand.
Monetary policy will remain accommodative, while lending and deposit interest rates will average below their neutral levels. Government spending will remain high. The average refinancing rate is forecast at around 8.5-9% in 2027, the consolidated budget deficit will not exceed 1% of GDP, and public debt is expected to stand at around 20% of GDP,” the report says.
Next year, the Belarusian ruble is expected to weaken by 2-4% against the currency basket. The foreign trade deficit will remain moderate and is not expected to pose risks to the national currency’s stability. Households are expected to remain net sellers of foreign currency, offsetting demand from businesses.
“Sufficient international reserves will allow the National Bank to mitigate the impact of major shocks should they occur. The average annual exchange rate is forecast at around 3.13 Belarusian rubles per US dollar in 2027 and approximately 3.62 Belarusian rubles per 100 Russian rubles,” MacroBy experts say.
Inflation is forecast at 4.8-5.3% by the end of this year. Next year, it could reach 6-7%.
“Stimulative economic policies, the monetary overhang accumulated as a result of their prolonged implementation, and strong wage growth will maintain moderate inflationary pressure. Price controls in the food sector and strong competition in commodity markets will continue to restrain price increases,” the report’s authors note.
Risks to the forecast remain high and include both upside and downside factors. The key source of uncertainty is the military and political situation. An escalation could result in lower GDP growth and higher inflation. Positive changes are possible if sanctions are eased.
“Domestic risks are associated with the accumulated monetary overhang: the easing of price controls and lower interest rates on household deposits have weakened the mechanisms that kept the monetary overhang ‘tied up’ in 2025-2026,” the report says.