GDP Growth Accelerated in September Due to a Statistical Effect — MacroBy

Reform.news Editorial Team · 21 October 2026, 14:29

https://reform.news/en/gdp-growth-accelerated-in-september-due-to-a-statistical-effect-macroby/

Belarus’s GDP growth accelerated to 2% in September, up from 1.9% in January-August. However, the improvement was driven by a statistical effect rather than an improvement in economic momentum. This is stated in a monthly express analysis of the Belarusian economy prepared by MacroBy experts.

“Over nine months, GDP increased by 2% YoY, and in September alone by 2.4% YoY. The increase in annual growth compared to the previous month was statistical in nature: the decline in GDP in September 2025 dropped out of the calculation of the indicator. Looking at current output dynamics, a weakening from the July peak is noticeable: seasonally adjusted GDP volume declined in August and September 2026. The decline in investment demand had a negative effect on output in early autumn, while it was supported by strengthening consumer activity, the “normalization” of agricultural output dynamics and, likely, the fulfillment of a number of large orders in industry,” the document says.

Belarus’s GDP increased by 2.9% in the third quarter compared with the same period last year, and by approximately 0.3% compared with the previous quarter after seasonal adjustment.

“Quarterly output growth slowed substantially amid reduced investment activity and subdued export dynamics, which manifested in weaker construction, manufacturing, and the ICT sector. Subdued demand prospects in the Russian market and the reached limit of extensive capacity utilization remained the key constraints on output growth. Under such conditions, fiscal and monetary stimulus translated into strengthening consumer demand, sustaining its overheating and the high volume of goods imports,” the authors of the analysis noted.

MacroBy experts expect the government may increase funding for the public sector in the fourth quarter and further reduce lending rates to stimulate the economy, as current economic momentum does not support expectations that the annual GDP growth target of 2.8% will be met.

” If domestic stimulation, against the backdrop of the expected weak demand dynamics in Russia, allows output not to fall below the Q3-2026 level, then Belarus’s GDP growth will come in at the middle of the 2–2.5% YoY range in 2026,” the experts concluded.