Украинский пулеметчик, возможно, из состава мобильной зенитной группы. Источник: 22-я отдельная механизированная бригада, Генштаб ВСУ
In May 2026, the most significant developments in the Russia-Ukraine war took place some distance from the front line, as there were no notable advances on the battlefield itself.
Russian forces increased the number of infantry assault operations by nearly 40% in May, carrying out more than 7,000 attacks, but failed to achieve significant gains.
Ukrainian forces, by contrast, have focused on strikes deep behind enemy lines, gradually turning the rear areas into a full-fledged battlefield.
We look at the new trends in the war and highlight the most significant developments of the month.
The most active fighting in May took place in Ukraine’s Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions, particularly in the areas around Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, as well as Huliaipole and Orikhiv.
According to calculations by the Ukrainian mapping project DeepState, May 2026 was the first month since the summer of 2023 in which Russian forces lost more territory than they captured. The project did not provide specific figures, as it deliberately reports Ukrainian advances with a delay.
According to estimates by the Institute for the Study of War, Russia lost 281 square kilometres of territory during May. This suggests that the situation on the front is only weakly connected to seasonal mud conditions, which could theoretically have been used to explain the relative stability of the front in March and April.
Thus, on a front that has generally not been particularly mobile — Russian forces have for years advanced more slowly than troops on the Western Front, the most stable front of the First World War — a trend towards a complete absence of success by Russian forces has been observed for several months.
One of the key developments of the previous month was the intensification of Ukrainian strikes against Russian rear areas at distances of around 50 kilometres. Ukrainian forces systematically targeted ammunition depots, fuel storage facilities, air-defence systems and military transport vehicles.
In May, Ukrainian drone strikes expanded to a depth of 100-200 kilometres, raising questions about the reliability of Russian logistics throughout the zone stretching from Crimea to Donetsk and Luhansk.
It should be noted that these strikes are not yet sufficiently massive to halt traffic entirely or isolate Russian troops from fuel, ammunition and reinforcements. However, the destruction of fuel depots and attacks on the highway running through occupied Ukrainian territory towards Crimea have already led to petrol shortages on the peninsula and the introduction of fuel rationing.
“Since the beginning of May, Ukrainian formations have significantly increased the number of drone strikes against vehicles transporting various cargoes to Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions and Crimea. The peninsula faces the threat of shortages of certain goods, while fuel is being sold under restrictions. The threat is not limited to disruption of the tourist season in Crimea or shortages of individual products. Strikes against freight carriers travelling to the peninsula directly affect the combat capabilities of Russian forces on the southern fronts, where the situation is already far from ideal,” the major Russian pro-war Telegram channel Rybar noted.
An increase in such strikes would not only reduce the combat effectiveness of Russian troops at the front, but could also slow and inflict significant losses on forces being deployed towards the battlefield at their most vulnerable moment — when soldiers are travelling in trucks and armoured vehicles are being transported on trailers. This would be particularly important if Ukraine were planning an offensive, as incoming Russian reinforcements might not arrive in time to seal a breakthrough.
Following April, May became a month of some of the most intensive Russian missile and drone attacks against Ukraine’s civilian population. This indicates that the large-scale campaign of strikes against Ukrainian cities was planned well in advance rather than being a response to any particular Ukrainian actions.
The United Nations notes that civilian casualties from long-range missiles and drones increased by approximately 20% in 2026 compared with 2025. “One of the main reasons for the increase in civilian casualties was the Russian Federation’s expanded use of long-range weapons,” the UN said.
On a single day alone, May 5, 2026, at least 27 people were killed in Russian missile and drone strikes. In some cases, attacks were carried out against emergency responders and medical personnel already working at the scene.
Ukraine, for its part, continued striking military and strategically important economic targets deep inside Russian territory, including oil refineries, fuel depots, military enterprises, warehouses and air-defence systems, as part of its systematic campaign to undermine Moscow’s ability to wage and finance the war.
In May, according to Bloomberg, Ukrainian strikes against oil storage, processing and transportation facilities deep inside Russia reached a record level of 30 attacks during the month. The attacks reduced refining volumes to a 16-year low and prompted Moscow to impose a ban on aviation fuel exports. Compared with 2025, refining output declined by 13%.