Ukrainian Armed Forces Officer Calls Scenario of Large-Scale Offensive From Belarus Unrealistic

Deputy Commander of the Kraken Unmanned Systems Regiment Kostiantyn Nemichev, in an interview with RBC-Ukraine, assessed potential threats from Belarus and described a scenario involving a large-scale offensive by military columns as unrealistic.

“There is always a threat, but we need to understand who it is directed against. There are several possibilities. The first is a threat to Ukraine’s border regions. The second concerns the Baltic states bordering Belarus. Russia views the Suwałki Gap as an opportunity to seize and cut off the Baltics from the rest of Europe by land. The third option is manipulation. They conduct exercises and dig defensive positions in order to force us to redeploy troops from the front line and stretch our forces,” he said.

Nemichev stressed that Ukraine’s defensive line along the border with Belarus is ready.

“Which scenario will materialise is unknown, but our task is to be prepared. Our defensive line on the border with Belarus is ready. If Russia, together with Belarus, attempts to advance in our direction, our unmanned systems and infantry brigades will do everything possible to destroy that column along with its equipment and personnel. That would give us a free hand to strike decision-making centres in Belarus. Lukashenka understands this, which is why he has been squirming in his seat for the past five years, unsure what to do. We are demonstrating on the battlefield that we are capable of destroying the enemy,” the officer said.

In his view, a repeat of the 2022 scenario, when military columns advanced through Ukraine’s Kyiv and Chernihiv regions, is unrealistic today.

“Equipment is no longer used in that way on the battlefield. Such columns would simply be destroyed before reaching their objective. At present, there is no large-scale threat to major cities from the territory of Belarus because of the number of forces stationed there. They may continue to build up resources, and attempts to enter border areas, small towns and villages are possible, as has been happening in the Kharkiv and Sumy regions to create a so-called buffer zone. We must respond appropriately to this threat, and that is what we are doing. Even after our victory, provocations and the enemy’s military build-up along the borders may continue,” he said.