Иллюстрация: фото president.gov.by, обработанное ИИ.
Either Aliaksandr Lukashenka was being stingy when releasing people, or he became disillusioned with the negotiating track with the United States. Either way, it seems that a “big deal” with Washington is unlikely. The regime proved unprepared for broad gestures.
Following the visit to our country by U.S. President’s Special Envoy John Coale the release of twenty-five Belarusian political prisoners was announced. All of them were taken to Lithuania; the regime allowed none of them to remain in their homeland. In return, it was reported, U.S. sanctions would be lifted from the enterprises of the Bellesprom concern and the Lida-based Lakokraska company. In addition, Coale promised that the United States would develop a mechanism to return to Minsk more than $40 million frozen at Citibank.
It is good that people have finally gained their freedom. However, the breakthrough that was expected and even announced by John Coale — the release of a large group of Belarusian political prisoners — did not happen. However one looks at it, it is difficult to call 25 released people a “large group.”
Still, doubts about the possibility of such a turn of events emerged much earlier. Last Friday, at the Obuz-Lesnovsky training ground, Aliaksandr Lukashenka began, as they say, to haggle over small amounts, demanding that Washington return a “debt” — the same millions stuck at Citibank. In light of the previously mentioned preparations for some kind of “big deal” with the United States mentioned earlier by a Belarusian politician, this looked somewhat strange. And it did not look like a “big deal” at all.
Suspicions grew stronger when Lukashenka invited Prime Minister Aliaksandr Turchyn to the talks with Coale, who arrived in Minsk yesterday. On the one hand, it was understandable — who better than the prime minister would be aware of all the economic problems and nuances? On the other hand, it became clear that the Belarusian regime was not prepared for broad gestures and intended to demand the maximum possible price for the release of political prisoners.
It appears that Lukashenka is missing an opportunity to make a gesture toward Donald Trump. And to present the U.S. president with a genuinely significant gift that he could boast about and present as his own achievement. A gift that would have been timely precisely now — on the eve of the U.S. midterm elections and amid Trump’s apparent failures in many areas, for which he is being actively criticized by political opponents. After all, 250 people released in a post by the U.S. president on his favorite Truth Social would have looked much more substantial than 25.
John Coale said today in Minsk that “the parties will continue working to resolve the outstanding issues. Once all issues have been resolved and agreed upon by both sides, there will be additional releases of individuals and the lifting of sanctions on Belarusian companies.” And yet the time Lukashenka has been given is irreversibly running out.
There is very little time left until November, when Coale’s mandate will expire. And there is no guarantee that the U.S. Congress will decide to extend his mandate. The midterm elections will also divert the already limited attention of the U.S. administration away from Belarus and its problems. There may simply not be enough time to “agree on the issues.”
But that is not even the main point. The main point is that Moscow has clearly decided to escalate, and not only in Ukraine. A Russian drone that entered Lithuania did so precisely while John Coale was there. A massive disruption to train services in the Netherlands and suspicions of sabotage. A Russian drone in the Baltic Sea off the Polish coast. Sabotage in Leipzig and a drone found near a military airfield in Germany. Fires at defense industry facilities in Poland, Bulgaria and Italy caused by arson.
If the escalation continues, Lukashenka will become of no interest to either the United States or, even more so, Europe. Everyone will have entirely different problems. Moreover, the longer the war in Ukraine continues, the greater the risk that Minsk will nevertheless become much more seriously involved in it, which also does not suit Lukashenka. The Belarusian politician’s much-needed participation in future peace negotiations is also increasingly in question — there will simply be no one to put in a good word for him. All this suggests that Lukashenka has missed an opportunity that may never arise again.
At this important crossroads, Lukashenka decided not to curb his ambitions but, de facto, to “humiliate” the U.S. president’s special envoy, sending him home with virtually nothing. As a farewell, he promised that the repression would continue, and that those who, in his view, are “under investigation or in correctional labor colonies will remain there.”
Is this what John Coale expected? Is it really simply a matter of ordinary greed and an attempt to get the maximum by selling hostages?
It appears that Lukashenka’s expectations of the negotiating track with the United States were initially too high. Judging by the leaks, the politician expected Washington’s help in lifting a number of European sanctions — for example, the ban on potash transit. But the special envoy’s powers are not unlimited. And more influential figures in the U.S. administration either did not consider it necessary to intervene in the matter or were also unable to “push through” the Europeans. Lukashenka also failed to “sell” himself to the Americans as the “key to Putin.”
Lukashenka’s proposal to acquire the Nezhinsky Mining and Processing Plant also apparently failed to generate enthusiasm. And the prospects for a meeting with President Trump that were discussed by the two sides were probably understood differently. It appears that in Washington this visit was seen, so to speak, as a routine stop. For example, a meeting of the Board of Peace, after which Lukashenka could shake Trump’s hand and speak with him for a few minutes. Exactly “we said hello and went our separate ways,” as Lukashenka himself described the format of the meeting. The Belarusian politician, who considers himself a geostrategist, would not agree to the role of a “decoration,” demanding that certain real issues be discussed. Without understanding, or perhaps accepting, that Trump has nothing to discuss with him. That potash supplies from Belarus, nuclear materials, the opening of an embassy and other sanctions simply “do not matter” to the U.S. president. From his perspective, Coale is quite sufficient to resolve these “minor problems”. And that the appointment of the special envoy, as well as the very fact that dialogue had begun, would be enough for Lukashenka to immediately release all political prisoners and be satisfied with the reward of an invitation to the Board of Peace.
But Minsk had a different view. Moreover, Lukashenka understands perfectly well that Trump is not eternal. And in a couple of years, all agreements reached with him could be reviewed by a new administration. Yet even the current administration is unlikely to appreciate the absence of broad gestures from the Belarusian politician.
And since the two sides misjudged each other’s intentions and the goals of the negotiations, both eventually faced inevitable disappointment. This does not mean that the negotiating track with the United States will come to an end tomorrow. But for now, the balance appears to be tipping toward the conclusion that no “big deal” should be expected. It would be good if it came down to small ones.
Still, there is a persistent sense that Lukashenka is missing his chance. As long as the war continues, it is unlikely that he will be able to exchange his assets for anything more significant than what the United States has already offered him. While petty bargaining may lead to the lifting of some additional, relatively insignificant sanctions, it will not win him Trump’s favor. And although that would not necessarily bring major dividends, it certainly would not be superfluous under the current circumstances.
Having imagined himself as a crane, one can easily lose the bird in hand. It seems that the politician’s instincts are beginning to fail him, and he has overestimated his own importance and prospects. Well, as a character in a famous film said, “vanity is my favorite of all sins.” It is only regrettable that people continue to remain in Belarusian prisons.
And a huge thank you to John Coale. He is doing everything he can. Every person released is already a victory. Therefore, despite everything, one wants to believe that the “limits of the possible” have not yet been reached by the U.S. president’s special envoy.
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The opinions and assessments expressed by the author may not coincide with the views of the Reform.news editorial board