Иллюстрация: фото AFP, обработанное ИИ. Владимир Зеленский, Джаред Кушнер и Стив Уиткофф в Киеве.
US President’s Special Envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner visited Moscow and Kyiv. Has peace in Ukraine moved any closer, and how could the situation in the region affect Belarus?
The visit by Donald Trump’s envoys, Witkoff and Kushner, to Kyiv was their first trip to Ukraine. Before that, the senior US negotiators had visited Moscow exclusively several times, meeting with Vladimir Putin and other Russian officials.
It appears that the Trump administration is once again seeking to bring Russia’s and Ukraine’s positions closer after a six-month pause caused by the failure of previous attempts to achieve at least a temporary ceasefire and by the fighting in Iran, which diverted Washington’s attention from the Russian-Ukrainian war.
The arrival of Trump’s envoys in Ukraine can already be regarded as a breakthrough to some extent. At the very least, Volodymyr Zelenskyy and members of the Ukrainian negotiating team had an opportunity to convey their view of the course of the war and options for ending it to Witkoff and Kushner. They could also substantively refute claims by Putin and his generals about the “situation on the ground” — including claims that Russia had allegedly captured Sviatohirsk and Kupiansk and that Russian troops had reached the outskirts of Sumy. This appears significant for understanding the situation on the front lines and the prospects of both sides.
Later, delegations from the United Kingdom, France and Germany — Ukraine’s closest European allies — joined the talks with the US side. Their task was evidently to reinforce and strengthen Kyiv’s negotiating position.
At the same time, no encouraging forecasts emerged after the US negotiators’ Russian-Ukrainian trip. Before traveling to Kyiv, Witkoff and Kushner spent more than three hours talking with Putin in Moscow. According to Russian presidential aide Yury Ushakov, the meeting was “substantive, constructive, extremely frank and trusting.” Trump’s envoys “put forward a number of considerations regarding possible ways to resolve the conflict.”
However, Ushakov also explained that the Russian side gave “clear and exhaustive assessments” of the situation at the front. “In particular, the real successes of the Russian army in advancing in the combat zone were noted. Confidence was expressed that the set objectives would be achieved and, of course, the need to eliminate all the root causes of the conflict was emphasized.”
The reference to the “root causes of the conflict” as understood by the Kremlin suggests that Moscow is not prepared to make any concessions. On the eve of Trump’s envoys’ arrival in Moscow, a Reuters source close to the Kremlin said that “there is no chance of reaching an agreement on the front line until Putin completes establishing control over the remaining part of the Donetsk region.” According to the source, based on information received from the military, the Russian president is confident that this goal will be achieved as early as this winter.
At the same time, Axios draws attention to an interesting detail: Gene Lange, a senior US Treasury Department official responsible for sanctions policy, arrived in Moscow together with Witkoff and Kushner. The official did not attend the meeting with Putin, but met with Putin’s envoy Kirill Dmitriev. Ushakov noted that the talks “focused in detail on economic issues and possible major mutually beneficial Russian-American projects.”
It can be assumed that, among other issues, the easing of Washington’s sanctions policy in the event of an agreement between Moscow and Kyiv was also discussed. However, neither side provided any details. It is also difficult to predict whether the prospect of sanctions relief will affect Russia’s negotiating position.
A White House representative said after the talks that Witkoff, Kushner and Putin had discussed “next steps that will be announced in the coming weeks.”
Kushner said the US is working on developing a “package of peace proposals.” “There were several new ideas, we discussed them, give us an opportunity to analyze this,” Zelenskyy said of Washington’s proposals, without providing details of the offers that had been made.
However, judging by all indications, there is little optimism yet about when the war could end. According to Axios, citing a source familiar with the negotiations, Zelenskyy discussed with the US side preparations for Ukraine to continue the war through the coming winter. “If the war continues through the winter — and for now it looks that way — we are really counting on a winter package,” the Ukrainian president said, appealing to the Americans for assistance.
According to leaks from Putin’s inner circle, winter is also being cited as the deadline for the final occupation of Donbas. Differences over the ultimate goals of the war and the conditions for reaching peace make constructive and productive negotiations between Moscow and Kyiv virtually impossible in the near future.
It appears that Washington understands this as well. After talks with Zelenskyy, Jared Kushner noted that reaching a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine is “a very, very difficult problem.”
Based on this, it can be assumed that we face at least another six months of war. And this will inevitably affect the situation throughout the region.
The longer the war lasts, the greater the risks of the Belarusian regime being drawn into it. For now, the Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine’s Defense Ministry (HUR) sees no signs that Belarus is preparing to enter the war. However, according to Chief of the Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine’s Defense Ministry Oleh Ivashchenko, Kyiv “knows that Moscow wants to use Belarusian territory and military resources to expand the geography of hostilities.”
Lukashenka has no real desire to fight, so prolonging the war is clearly not in his interests. The longer it continues, the greater the Kremlin’s desire to involve its ally in it. The same applies to efforts to destabilize the situation in EU countries bordering Belarus.
The US plan to create a trilateral format — bringing Moscow and Kyiv to the negotiating table with Washington acting as mediator, even after the winter campaign and taking its results into account — also carries risks. Under such an arrangement, there appears to be no place at the table for Lukashenka. This runs counter to the Belarusian politician’s desperate desire to take part in the negotiations. Otherwise, as we have written repeatedly, Lukashenka risks being left alone with Putin after the war. In a weak position, without guarantees for himself and his regime.
He needs to maneuver somehow between Moscow and Washington. To win Donald Trump and his administration over and gain their favor. To take certain real steps that will be noticed and appreciated. In this light, particular attention is drawn to the announced visit to Belarus in mid-September by Trump’s special envoy John Coale.
It cannot be ruled out that Lukashenka will nevertheless agree to release a large group of Belarusian political prisoners without any additional conditions. He may decide to rein in his ambitions in order to make an impression. Especially since he clearly failed in the role of mediator between the US and Putin that, according to former US special envoy for Ukraine Keith Kellogg, had been assigned to the Belarusian politician. And it is important for Lukashenka to remain visible to the US, and in a positive light. To somehow get through this winter while avoiding escalation. In the hope that negotiations will eventually begin and that he will not be forgotten.
Another deadline that Lukashenka may have been waiting for could have been a meeting of the Peace Council founded by Trump, along with the Belarusian politician’s visit to the US timed to coincide with the event. It cannot be ruled out that Minsk planned to combine the release of political prisoners with receiving an invitation to the council’s previously announced September meeting.
However, it appears that this event is also being postponed. At a press conference in Kyiv, Jared Kushner was asked about Gaza and the results of the Peace Council’s work. He acknowledged that normalizing the situation in the Gaza Strip and disarming Hamas had proved significantly more difficult than expected. Kushner also mentioned existing disagreements between the Trump administration and Israel’s leadership.
According to Kushner, the council has a plan for further action on Gaza. However, as could be understood from his remarks, the council’s future work is tied to the Israeli elections scheduled for late October this year, which he described as “crazy elections.”
Based on this, it can be assumed that the next meeting of the Peace Council will take place no earlier than the Israeli elections. And possibly significantly later. Lukashenka may have to wait an indefinite amount of time for an invitation to the council.
Moreover, it is still unclear what results the November midterm elections in the US itself will produce. There is also a risk that Washington’s policy could change after them. The Belarusian politician has found himself in a difficult situation — remain in waiting mode, or finally put his few cards on the table.
And this inspires cautious optimism. There is hope that Coale’s visit to Minsk will be accompanied by the release of a sufficiently large group of political prisoners. Raising the stakes further could prove dangerous for Lukashenka — he could lose.
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