Persistent Foreign Trade Deficit Poses Risk to Currency Market Stability

The continued foreign trade deficit over recent years poses a risk to stability in the foreign exchange market, according to the National Bank of Belarus’s annual financial stability report.

“The persistence of a significant foreign trade deficit over the past year and a half has been increasing risks to stability in the foreign exchange market and requires long-term and predictable sources of financing for the deficit,” the report says.

Last year, faster growth in goods imports combined with virtually no significant increase in exports widened the foreign trade deficit to $6 billion from $4.7 billion in 2024.

“The deterioration was driven by trade in investment goods and non-food consumer goods. In trade in raw materials (included in the intermediate goods category), physical export volumes of potash fertilizers increased, as did their prices. From October 2025, pricing conditions and trading conditions for oil and petroleum products improved, which had a positive effect on the overall balance,” the National Bank said.

The situation was partially offset by favorable pricing conditions, which remain beneficial for the country.

The National Bank also noted a sustained trend toward an improved balance in trade in services, driven by steady export growth. The surplus in foreign trade in services increased by 31.2% last year to $4.2 billion.