Иллюстративное изображение изготовлено с помощью ИИ
The 4th Minsk International Conference on Eurasian Security could have been an ordinary event were it not for two factors. The first, less significant one, was the arrival in Minsk of the OSCE Secretary General. The second, far more important, was a series of statements made by Aliaksandr Lukashenka. The result was a troubling impression that an escalation of the war may be just around the corner and that our country is being assigned a considerable role in it.
The participation of OSCE Secretary General Feridun Sinirlioğlu in the conference could have been regarded as a diplomatic victory for official Minsk were it not for one important “but”. In reality, the explanation is quite simple: the most likely reason for the senior official’s visit to the Belarusian capital was Turkey’s nomination of Sinirlioğlu for the post of UN Secretary-General. Ahead of the vote, he needs to secure the support of UN member states, above all Russia, which has veto power in the Security Council. So Sinirlioğlu came not so much to meet Lukashenka as to meet Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, with whom he held talks on the sidelines of the Minsk summit.
Under these circumstances, it was hardly convenient for Sinirlioğlu to raise sensitive issues. A call by Deputy Head of the United Transitional Cabinet Pavel Latushka for the OSCE Secretary General to discuss the release of Belarusian political prisoners also went unanswered. Such a request would certainly have been a logical part of a visit to Minsk by a senior European official. But apparently, securing support was more important to Sinirlioğlu than pursuing a humanitarian agenda that could have led to complications.
In his address to the conference, the OSCE Secretary General even appeared to “play along” with the organisers, repeatedly referring to the so-called “indivisibility of security on the Eurasian continent” — a term regularly used by both Russian and Belarusian diplomats. Overall, however, Sinirlioğlu’s speech could be described as “for everything good and against everything bad”. It contained no contentious points, criticism or landmark ideas, which was in keeping with the purpose of the OSCE Secretary General’s visit to Minsk.
Aliaksandr Lukashenka’s address to the conference, however, proved unexpectedly candid. Clearly, his speech had been prepared within the Belarusian Foreign Ministry, which has long since turned into an offshoot of Russia’s Foreign Ministry. Hence the repeated use of Kremlin narratives about Russia fighting “the entire West”, “brotherly nations”, a war “to the last Ukrainian” and other well-worn rhetoric.
But at times the politician departed from the prepared text and spoke, as they say, about what was really troubling him. These passages turned out to be the most important parts of his address.
There were several key points.
First, the Belarusian politician expects the Russian-Ukrainian war to end in the coming months. According to him, the main argument in favour of this outcome is that all sides are tired of the war.
Perhaps the key point here is the phrase “all sides”, which Lukashenka is unlikely to have used by chance.
“That’s it. There is no strength left, and there are no resources left. Everyone is tired. When I talk about resources, I do not mean that there is a shortage of certain resources. Russia has enough, God willing, for the whole world. I am not talking about those resources. There are no resources left in people’s minds: everyone is already tired of this war, and even in Europe they have finally begun to understand who was primarily responsible for the escalation that disrupted the peace in 2022, or perhaps in 2024 — there were several attempts to stop the fighting,” he said.
Europe is one thing, but in this case Lukashenka is explicitly speaking about war fatigue in Russia as well.
What followed was even more interesting. “So many people are dying on both sides. Do we need this? Nobody needs it. That is why we need to put our pride aside and understand what tomorrow may bring,” Lukashenka said.
So, everyone is tired, and pride needs to be put aside. Again, this apparently applies to all the parties involved in the war, since the politician did not single out Ukraine or the West. That, too, is unlikely to have been accidental.
It is telling that Lukashenka’s remarks clearly ran counter to Russia’s position, represented at the conference by Foreign Minister Lavrov. He, by contrast, said that proposals for a ceasefire in Ukraine, including initiatives for energy, food, air and maritime truces, were not aimed at achieving peace but at giving Kyiv time to rebuild its military capabilities. Russia, he said, continues to insist on eliminating the so-called “root causes of the conflict”.
“All these lamentations are aimed solely at giving Kyiv a respite to rebuild its combat capabilities with the help of the regime’s external sponsors,” Lavrov said.
In other words, Russia’s foreign minister undiplomatically dismissed Lukashenka’s remarks about widespread war fatigue and the need to put pride aside as “lamentations”.
The Belarusian politician, meanwhile, appears to be presenting wishful thinking as reality.
The second point is that Lukashenka declared his readiness “to continue making a real contribution to resolving the conflict and minimising its consequences”.
“There is no alternative to a peaceful solution. If you want to reach an agreement (I am addressing those who want to reach an agreement), please come. Come to Minsk,” he said.
This is further confirmation of what is no longer merely a theory but an established fact: for Lukashenka, participation in negotiations to end the Russian-Ukrainian war has been and remains a matter of vital importance. At the same time, he sees himself not as a mediator but as a direct participant in the negotiating process.
“We will negotiate. Not ‘you negotiate’, but ‘we will negotiate’. Because we are involved in this Ukrainian conflict, and our interests in these peace talks are very significant. Come, and we will talk. Without any mediation. I do not want to play the role of mediator,” the politician said.
Moreover, even if the talks take place not in Belarus but in “another country”, Lukashenka announced that he would travel there “with pleasure, and with a large delegation”.
However, there is little reason to hope for constructive negotiations at this point. The Kremlin’s chief negotiator at the announced trilateral talks between Russia, Ukraine and the United States remains Putin’s aide Vladimir Medinsky. This, together with the substance of Foreign Minister Lavrov’s address at yesterday’s conference, indicates that Moscow’s position has not shifted in any constructive way. It is evidently still unwilling to make any meaningful compromises.
Lukashenka cannot fail to understand this. Yet, judging by his remarks, he still wants the war to end as soon as possible, despite the objective circumstances. What is driving this desire?
Recently, there have been numerous warnings about a possible escalation that the Kremlin may decide to pursue, including various kinds of provocations against NATO member states. Some of them could be quite large-scale.
Against this backdrop, the third key point in Lukashenka’s address sounded particularly alarming. According to him, Belarus is being drawn into the war. Supposedly, the attempt is being made on Ukraine’s behalf. However, taken together, the politician’s remarks gave the impression that he was referring to something much more serious.
“The bloodshed and confrontation into which our two brotherly nations have been drawn are taking place right on our border. And I must say, not just on the border — I will not cite specific facts, but it is already happening on the territory of Belarus. Someone wants to drag Belarus into this war and unleash an escalation,” Lukashenka said.
It is difficult to say what Lukashenka meant by “confrontation on the territory of Belarus”. Perhaps he was referring to the alleged destruction by Ukrainian drones of signal repeaters used to adjust the flight paths of Russian drones. This was claimed in July this year by Vadzim Kabanchuk, the United Transitional Cabinet’s representative for defence and national security, although he did not disclose his sources. In June, Belarusian state television also aired a report claiming that Ukraine had “wanted to attack Belarus using a drone carrying a deadly payload”.
So who is “trying” to drag Lukashenka into the war? The theories involving Ukraine and the West sound wholly unconvincing for a number of reasons, which hardly need to be discussed here. In his address, the Belarusian politician said that the Russian president “has no intention of having Belarus drawn into this war tomorrow”.
And what about the day after tomorrow? Moreover, given the Belarusian politician’s habit of frequently framing statements in terms of what is not the case, Putin’s mention in this context may have been far from accidental. It could well have been a direct reference to the main culprit behind the attempt to “drag Belarus into the war”.
Another remark by Lukashenka is also worth noting.
“But then we understand that if we enter the war, the entire NATO bloc will also start fighting against us under that pretext,” he said.
It sounds as though Lukashenka fears precisely this kind of development and is “talking away” his own fears. This is, incidentally, characteristic of the politician — one need only recall his rhetoric in the run-up to the full-scale war against Ukraine.
The war, it seems, has ceased to be beneficial to Lukashenka. Instead of serving as a tool for profiting from support for Russia, it now threatens to turn into a real catastrophe. It is also unclear how he can extricate himself from this situation, since betraying Putin is just as dangerous as continuing to follow in his wake.
I will not presume to judge what lies behind the Belarusian politician’s fears — whether actual intelligence or a premonition of impending danger. But his address as a whole left a disturbing impression. There is a risk that Belarus could go from being a co-aggressor to becoming a fully fledged staging ground.
***
The opinions and assessments expressed by the author may not reflect the views of the Reform.news editorial team.