Lithuanian intelligence currently sees no increase in the military threat from Belarus. Deividas Matulionis, the chief national security adviser to the president of Lithuania, said this in an interview with LRT.
“I specifically asked our services about this today, and they do not have such information. As of today, we do not see an increased threat from Belarus. Yes, there are certain Russian military facilities, but we definitely do not see any new maneuver units that would pose a direct threat to Lithuania, Latvia or Poland,” he said.
According to Matulionis, Aliaksandr Lukashenka does not appear to be interested in directly participating in Russia’s war against Ukraine at the moment and is trying to restore relations with the West and the United States.
“On the other hand, it does not appear that Lukashenka is currently very interested in directly participating in Russia’s war against Ukraine. He is trying to balance things and restore relations with the West and the United States. Therefore, neither politically nor practically do we see any additional threats from Belarus,” he said.
The statement came after Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya visited Lithuania. In an interview with 15min published on Thursday, the democratic opposition leader said she had received information about the construction of new military infrastructure in Belarus, both near the border with Ukraine and along the borders with EU countries. According to Tsikhanouskaya, Lukashenka is ready to provide Russia with Belarusian territory and infrastructure for possible operations against NATO countries or to exert pressure on the Alliance.
Matulionis said Lithuanian intelligence services were closely monitoring the situation in Belarus and would immediately respond to any possible increase in Russian military presence.
“If an increase in the number of Russian troops were detected, and we would notice it easily … warning lights would come on, requiring action at the national and Alliance levels. But at the moment, we cannot confirm Tsikhanouskaya’s claims,” he said.
At the same time, the presidential adviser believes Lithuania should not seek to restore political relations with the Belarusian authorities. However, in his view, communication channels should be maintained to prevent escalation.
“It does not necessarily have to be at a high political level. Even adversaries have historically always had channels of communication, so I see no problem here,” the presidential adviser said.
“As for restoring relations with Belarus, the rhetorical question is: why? We do not see any goodwill toward us, and Belarus continues to support Russia’s war against Ukraine. The time for a thaw in relations has not yet come,” he added.
