Golovchenko Gives Inflation Forecast for Belarus

Roman Golovchenko, Chairman of the Board of the National Bank, believes that inflation in the country will not accelerate. By the end of the year, it is expected to remain at its current level. In September, annual price growth stood at 7.1%.

“We do not see any major risk of intensifying inflationary processes. Moreover, the so-called trend (or forward-looking) inflation, which we calculate using special methods adjusted for temporary factors, is now at 6%. Therefore, I believe that roughly at this level, which has formed now, we will end the year.

The inflation trend is currently slowing. If you recall, in July this figure was 7.4%. Of course, this is slightly above our target of 5% (42% higher than the target — Reform.news note). But one-off factors have played a role here. This includes producer price growth and some inflationary spillover from our main economic partner, the Russian Federation,” he said.

Golovchenko noted that the main driver of price growth is food products, especially vegetables and fruits. Prices for non-food goods are rising at a rate below 5%.

The annual price increase for food products reached 9.8% in September, while non-food goods rose by 2.9%. Since the beginning of the year, food prices have increased by 6.9%, and non-food goods by 2.9%.

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