Фото: ЕАБР
Analysts at the Eurasian Development Bank believe that Belarus’ GDP growth could exceed their forecast and surpass 2% by the end of 2026. This is stated in the EDB’s weekly review of the economies of its member countries.
Last week, Belstat reported that Belarus’ gross domestic product grew by 2.1% in January-July, compared with 1.5% in the first half of the year.
“The key factor behind the acceleration was agriculture: an earlier harvest led to output growth of 12.9% year-on-year, compared with 4.7% year-on-year in the first half of the year. Industrial output increased by 0.1% year-on-year in January-July, after declining by 0.7% year-on-year in January-June, amid high domestic consumer and investment activity, as well as increased demand for fuel in Russia.
Retail turnover grew by 8.1% year-on-year, while investment increased by 4% year-on-year in January-July. Value added in the ‘Information and Communication’ sector increased by 4.9% year-on-year amid a rise in orders. Construction continues to recover after the downturn caused by unusually low temperatures in January-February 2026: the volume of contract work increased by 2.3% year-on-year in January-July”, the review said.
According to the EDB, July’s results indicate that Belarus’ GDP could grow by more than 2% for the year.
“In the absence of new shocks, Belarus’ economic growth could exceed our forecast and amount to more than 2% by the end of 2026”, the experts concluded.
In its June macroeconomic forecast, the EDB estimated Belarus’ economic growth at 1.3% this year. The forecast was then lowered by 0.5 percentage points compared with the December projection.