Фото: united.group
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development has published a macroeconomic forecast for countries in its region. Despite having ceased operations in Belarus and Russia, the EBRD continues to assess the economies of the two countries.
The EBRD expects the Belarusian economy to grow by 1.3% in 2026, with growth accelerating to 1.5% in 2027. Both estimates have been revised downward. The forecast for 2026 has been cut by 0.4 percentage points, and that for 2027 by 1 percentage point compared with the autumn release.
It is recalled that the country’s GDP contracted by 1.2% in January. The official forecast of the Belarusian authorities envisages economic growth of 2.8%.
Growth of the Russian economy this year is estimated at 0.8%, and at 1% next year. The forecast has been lowered by 0.3 and 0.5 percentage points, respectively.
“In 2025, growth was subdued, at 1.3%, reflecting a contraction in manufacturing (by 2.5%) alongside near stagnation in agricultural production. The downturn in manufacturing was driven by reduced export opportunities to Russia and limited financing for import substitution. Headline inflation reached 7.4% in July 2025 and then declined to 6.8% by December, mainly due to measures to curb food price growth. Economic growth is expected to remain sluggish, at 1.3% in 2026 and 1.5% in 2027. Significant downside risks are linked to the persistence of economic sanctions and dependence on the Russian economy,” the document says.
The EBRD region as a whole is expected to grow by 3.6% in 2026 and by 3.7% in 2027. Both estimates have been raised by 0.2 percentage points.
The EBRD estimates GDP growth this year at 2.2% in Latvia, 3.3% in Lithuania, 3.7% in Poland and 2.5% in Ukraine.