Фото: united.group
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has published its latest regional economic outlook.
The forecast for Belarus’ economic growth in 2026 has been lowered by 0.2 percentage points. EBRD analysts expect Belarus’ GDP to grow by 1.1% this year. Growth is projected to accelerate to 1.5% next year. The forecast for 2027 has not been revised.
“GDP contracted by 0.4% year-on-year in the first three months of 2026 due to declining industrial output and stagnant agricultural crop yields. The downturn in manufacturing underscores persistent challenges, including shrinking export opportunities to Russia and limited financing for import substitution. Annual inflation peaked at 7.4% in July 2025 before gradually declining to 5.4% in March 2026.
Disinflation was largely supported by controls on food prices. Economic growth is expected to remain subdued in the near term, reaching 1.1% in 2026 and 1.5% in 2027. Economic sanctions and Belarus’ dependence on the Russian economy pose significant downside risks to growth,” the document states.
Belarus’ GDP returned to growth in January-April, increasing by 0.2%. At the same time, the official forecast approved by decree of Aliaksandr Lukashenka envisages economic growth of 2.8% this year.
Against the backdrop of conflicts in the Middle East, the EBRD also lowered its forecast for aggregate growth across its regions of operation by 0.5 percentage points to 3.1%. The estimate for 2027 was reduced by 0.1 percentage points to 3.6%.
The EBRD considers the conflict the main shock affecting the regional economic outlook.
“Higher oil and gas prices, disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, and the widening gap between energy prices in Europe and the United States — now exceeding a fivefold difference for natural gas — have negatively affected competitiveness and slowed economic growth.
Electricity prices in Europe also remain significantly higher than in the United States, reinforcing long-term structural shifts in industrial production towards less energy-intensive sectors,” the outlook notes.
The EBRD did not revise its forecast for Russian economic growth. It expects the Russian economy to expand by 0.8% this year and by 1% next year.
The bank forecasts Lithuania’s economy to grow by 3.0% this year (-0.3 percentage points from the previous forecast), Poland’s by 3.5% (-0.2 percentage points), Latvia’s by 2.0% (-0.2 percentage points), and Ukraine’s by 2.2% (-0.3 percentage points).