Belarus GDP Reached a New All-Time High in May – MacroBy

Belarus’ GDP reached a new all-time high in May, according to an express analysis of the Belarusian economy’s performance over the first five months of the year prepared by MacroBy as part of the “Monitoring the Economy of Belarus” project.

Last week, Belstat reported that Belarus’ GDP grew by 0.9% in January-May, compared with 0.2% in the first four months of the year. MacroBy noted that GDP in May was 3.7% higher than in the same month a year earlier. Compared with April 2026, GDP increased by more than 1% in May and reached a new record high.

“A sharp increase in construction activity and a recovery in manufacturing were the main reasons for the acceleration of GDP growth in May. This was supported by stronger investment and consumer demand amid unrestricted lending conditions, rising household incomes, high budget expenditures and administrative stimulation of capital investment.

It is also likely that the sharp increase in construction activity was partly linked to the accounting treatment of commissioned facilities, which means a correction can be expected in the coming months. Output also continued to be supported by strong external demand for fertilizers and food products, as well as increased processing of tolling oil.”, the review said.

Its authors say that the acceleration of GDP growth in May is not sustainable. Long-term potential growth rates remain within the range of 2%.

“Nevertheless, the broad-based return of economic sectors to positive growth and the continuation of stimulative economic policies provide grounds for cautious optimism regarding the growth of the Belarusian economy this year. In June, growth will remain close to or slightly above 4% year-on-year, while cumulative growth for the first half of the year will be around 1.5% year-on-year. The GDP growth forecast for 2026 may be raised from 0.5–1.5% to 1.5–2.5% in the near future.”, the document said.

The report also notes that favorable foreign trade conditions are offsetting the negative effects of unbalanced domestic demand growth on the trade balance and the exchange rate. Inflation is expected to be reflected in high growth rates for tariffs on non-regulated services. At the same time, a strong Belarusian ruble and price controls will help keep inflation within the 5-6% range by the end of the year.

In industry, annual growth in value added was recorded for the first time since March last year.

“Stronger domestic investment demand may have stimulated increased production of construction and metallurgical products. The chemical sector (primarily fertilizer production) continued to post strong output figures amid robust external demand. Rising consumer activity in Belarus and Russia contributed to increased production of passenger cars and food products (up 3.3% year-on-year in January-May 2026).”, the review said.

According to its authors, it is still too early to speak of a change in the industrial trend, but the prospects for moderate output growth by the end of the year have improved.

Agricultural production increased significantly in May amid more favorable weather conditions than a year earlier.