{"id":598892,"date":"2026-11-04T17:44:38","date_gmt":"2026-11-04T14:44:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/reform.news\/?p=598892"},"modified":"2026-11-04T19:48:05","modified_gmt":"2026-11-04T16:48:05","slug":"minsk-security-conference-lukashenka-is-talking-away-his-own-fears","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/reform.news\/en\/minsk-security-conference-lukashenka-is-talking-away-his-own-fears","title":{"rendered":"Minsk Security Conference: Lukashenka Is \u201cTalking Away\u201d His Own Fears"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

The 4th Minsk International Conference on Eurasian Security could have been an ordinary event were it not for two factors. The first, less significant one, was the arrival in Minsk of the OSCE Secretary General. The second, far more important, was a series of statements made by Aliaksandr Lukashenka<\/strong>. The result was a troubling impression that an escalation of the war may be just around the corner and that our country is being assigned a considerable role in it.<\/p>\n

Aria of the Overseas Guest<\/b><\/h2>\n

The participation of OSCE Secretary General Feridun Sinirlio\u011flu<\/b> in the conference could have been regarded as a diplomatic victory for official Minsk were it not for one important \u201cbut\u201d. In reality, the explanation is quite simple: the most likely reason for the senior official\u2019s visit to the Belarusian capital was Turkey\u2019s nomination of Sinirlio\u011flu for the post of UN Secretary-General. Ahead of the vote, he needs to secure the support of UN member states, above all Russia, which has veto power in the Security Council. So Sinirlio\u011flu came not so much to meet Lukashenka as to meet Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov<\/b>, with whom he held talks<\/a> on the sidelines of the Minsk summit.<\/p>\n

Under these circumstances, it was hardly convenient for Sinirlio\u011flu to raise sensitive issues. A call by Deputy Head of the United Transitional Cabinet Pavel Latushka<\/b> for the OSCE Secretary General to discuss the release of Belarusian political prisoners<\/a> also went unanswered. Such a request would certainly have been a logical part of a visit to Minsk by a senior European official. But apparently, securing support was more important to Sinirlio\u011flu than pursuing a humanitarian agenda that could have led to complications.<\/p>\n

In his address<\/a> to the conference, the OSCE Secretary General even appeared to \u201cplay along\u201d with the organisers, repeatedly referring to the so-called \u201cindivisibility of security on the Eurasian continent\u201d \u2014 a term regularly used by both Russian and Belarusian diplomats. Overall, however, Sinirlio\u011flu\u2019s speech could be described as \u201cfor everything good and against everything bad\u201d. It contained no contentious points, criticism or landmark ideas, which was in keeping with the purpose of the OSCE Secretary General\u2019s visit to Minsk.<\/p>\n

\u201cPut Pride Aside\u201d<\/b><\/h2>\n

Aliaksandr Lukashenka\u2019s address to the conference, however, proved unexpectedly candid. Clearly, his speech had been prepared within the Belarusian Foreign Ministry, which has long since turned into an offshoot of Russia\u2019s Foreign Ministry. Hence the repeated use of Kremlin narratives about Russia fighting \u201cthe entire West<\/i>\u201d, \u201cbrotherly nations<\/i>\u201d, a war \u201cto the last Ukrainian<\/i>\u201d and other well-worn rhetoric.<\/p>\n

But at times the politician departed from the prepared text and spoke, as they say, about what was really troubling him. These passages turned out to be the most important parts of his address.<\/p>\n

There were several key points.<\/p>\n

First, the Belarusian politician expects the Russian-Ukrainian war to end in the coming months<\/a>. According to him, the main argument in favour of this outcome is that all sides are tired of the war.<\/p>\n

Perhaps the key point here is the phrase \u201call sides\u201d, which Lukashenka is unlikely to have used by chance.<\/p>\n

\u201cThat\u2019s it. There is no strength left, and there are no resources left. Everyone is tired. When I talk about resources, I do not mean that there is a shortage of certain resources. Russia has enough, God willing, for the whole world. I am not talking about those resources. There are no resources left in people\u2019s minds: everyone is already tired of this war, and even in Europe they have finally begun to understand who was primarily responsible for the escalation that disrupted the peace in 2022, or perhaps in 2024 \u2014 there were several attempts to stop the fighting<\/em>,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Europe is one thing, but in this case Lukashenka is explicitly speaking about war fatigue in Russia as well.<\/p>\n

What followed was even more interesting. \u201cSo many people are dying on both sides. Do we need this? Nobody needs it. That is why we need to put our pride aside and understand what tomorrow may bring<\/i>,\u201d Lukashenka said.<\/p>\n

So, everyone is tired, and pride needs to be put aside. Again, this apparently applies to all the parties involved in the war, since the politician did not single out Ukraine or the West. That, too, is unlikely to have been accidental.<\/p>\n

It is telling that Lukashenka\u2019s remarks clearly ran counter to Russia\u2019s position, represented at the conference by Foreign Minister Lavrov. He, by contrast, said that proposals for a ceasefire in Ukraine, including initiatives for energy, food, air and maritime truces, were not aimed at achieving peace but at giving Kyiv time to rebuild its military capabilities. Russia, he said, continues to insist on eliminating the so-called \u201croot causes of the conflict\u201d.<\/p>\n

\u201cAll these lamentations are aimed solely at giving Kyiv a respite to rebuild its combat capabilities with the help of the regime\u2019s external sponsors<\/i>,\u201d Lavrov said.<\/p>\n

In other words, Russia\u2019s foreign minister undiplomatically dismissed Lukashenka\u2019s remarks about widespread war fatigue and the need to put pride aside as \u201clamentations\u201d.<\/p>\n

The Belarusian politician, meanwhile, appears to be presenting wishful thinking as reality.<\/p>\n

\u201cWith Pleasure, and with a Large Delegation\u201d<\/b><\/h2>\n

The second point is that Lukashenka declared his readiness<\/a> \u201cto continue making a real contribution to resolving the conflict and minimising its consequences\u201d.<\/i><\/p>\n

\u201cThere is no alternative to a peaceful solution. If you want to reach an agreement (I am addressing those who want to reach an agreement), please come. Come to Minsk,\u201d<\/i> he said.<\/p>\n

This is further confirmation of what is no longer merely a theory but an established fact: for Lukashenka, participation in negotiations to end the Russian-Ukrainian war has been and remains a matter of vital importance. At the same time, he sees himself not as a mediator but as a direct participant in the negotiating process.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe will negotiate. Not \u2018you negotiate\u2019, but \u2018we will negotiate\u2019. Because we are involved in this Ukrainian conflict, and our interests in these peace talks are very significant. Come, and we will talk. Without any mediation. I do not want to play the role of mediator,\u201d<\/i> the politician said.<\/p>\n

Moreover, even if the talks take place not in Belarus but in \u201canother country\u201d<\/i>, Lukashenka announced that he would travel there \u201cwith pleasure, and with a large delegation\u201d.<\/i><\/p>\n

However, there is little reason to hope for constructive negotiations at this point. The Kremlin\u2019s chief negotiator at the announced trilateral talks between Russia, Ukraine and the United States remains Putin\u2019s aide Vladimir Medinsky<\/b>. This, together with the substance of Foreign Minister Lavrov\u2019s address at yesterday\u2019s conference, indicates that Moscow\u2019s position has not shifted in any constructive way. It is evidently still unwilling to make any meaningful compromises.<\/p>\n

Lukashenka cannot fail to understand this. Yet, judging by his remarks, he still wants the war to end as soon as possible, despite the objective circumstances. What is driving this desire?<\/p>\n

\u201cTalking Away\u201d His Fears<\/b><\/h2>\n

Recently, there have been numerous warnings about a possible escalation that the Kremlin may decide to pursue, including various kinds of provocations against NATO member states. Some of them could be quite large-scale.<\/p>\n

Against this backdrop, the third key point in Lukashenka\u2019s address sounded particularly alarming. According to him, Belarus is being drawn into the war<\/a>. Supposedly, the attempt is being made on Ukraine\u2019s behalf. However, taken together, the politician\u2019s remarks gave the impression that he was referring to something much more serious.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe bloodshed and confrontation into which our two brotherly nations have been drawn are taking place right on our border. And I must say, not just on the border \u2014 I will not cite specific facts, but it is already happening on the territory of Belarus. Someone wants to drag Belarus into this war and unleash an escalation,\u201d<\/i> Lukashenka said.<\/p>\n

It is difficult to say what Lukashenka meant by \u201cconfrontation on the territory of Belarus\u201d. Perhaps he was referring to the alleged destruction by Ukrainian drones of signal repeaters<\/a> used to adjust the flight paths of Russian drones. This was claimed in July this year by Vadzim Kabanchuk<\/b>, the United Transitional Cabinet\u2019s representative for defence and national security, although he did not disclose his sources. In June, Belarusian state television also aired a report claiming that Ukraine had \u201cwanted to attack Belarus using a drone carrying a deadly payload\u201d.<\/p>\n

So who is \u201ctrying\u201d to drag Lukashenka into the war? The theories involving Ukraine and the West sound wholly unconvincing for a number of reasons, which hardly need to be discussed here. In his address, the Belarusian politician said that the Russian president \u201chas no intention of having Belarus drawn into this war tomorrow\u201d.<\/i><\/p>\n

And what about the day after tomorrow? Moreover, given the Belarusian politician\u2019s habit of frequently framing statements in terms of what is not the case, Putin\u2019s mention in this context may have been far from accidental. It could well have been a direct reference to the main culprit behind the attempt to \u201cdrag Belarus into the war\u201d.<\/p>\n

Another remark by Lukashenka is also worth noting.<\/p>\n

\u201cBut then we understand that if we enter the war, the entire NATO bloc will also start fighting against us under that pretext,\u201d<\/i> he said.<\/p>\n

It sounds as though Lukashenka fears precisely this kind of development and is \u201ctalking away\u201d his own fears. This is, incidentally, characteristic of the politician \u2014 one need only recall his rhetoric in the run-up to the full-scale war against Ukraine.<\/p>\n

The war, it seems, has ceased to be beneficial to Lukashenka. Instead of serving as a tool for profiting from support for Russia, it now threatens to turn into a real catastrophe. It is also unclear how he can extricate himself from this situation, since betraying Putin is just as dangerous as continuing to follow in his wake.<\/p>\n

I will not presume to judge what lies behind the Belarusian politician\u2019s fears \u2014 whether actual intelligence or a premonition of impending danger. But his address as a whole left a disturbing impression. There is a risk that Belarus could go from being a co-aggressor to becoming a fully fledged staging ground.<\/p>\n

***<\/strong><\/p>\n

The opinions and assessments expressed by the author may not reflect the views of the Reform.news editorial team.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The 4th Minsk International Conference on Eurasian Security could have been an ordinary event were it not for two factors. The first, less significant one, was the arrival in Minsk of the OSCE Secretary General. The second, far more important, was a series of statements made by Aliaksandr Lukashenka. The result was a troubling impression […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":119,"featured_media":598893,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_sharing_image":{"poster":"https:\/\/reform.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/6aeb61ca4f333.jpg","width":1200,"height":630,"template":"691142dd","mode":"auto"},"_sharing_image_fieldset":{"dTVKfmI95PYT":"Minsk Security Conference: Lukashenka Is \u201cTalking Away\u201d His Own Fears"},"footnotes":""},"categories":[142376,142339,142338,143127,143090],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-598892","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-comment","category-main","category-news","category-society","category-politics"],"acf":[],"wps_subtitle":"","permalink_manager":null,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/reform.news\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/598892","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/reform.news\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/reform.news\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/reform.news\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/119"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/reform.news\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=598892"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/reform.news\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/598892\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":598894,"href":"https:\/\/reform.news\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/598892\/revisions\/598894"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/reform.news\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/598893"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/reform.news\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=598892"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/reform.news\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=598892"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/reform.news\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=598892"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}