{"id":571809,"date":"2026-08-27T19:27:07","date_gmt":"2026-08-27T16:27:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/reform.news\/?p=571809"},"modified":"2026-08-27T20:30:11","modified_gmt":"2026-08-27T17:30:11","slug":"carrot-and-stick-continues-new-oligarchs-vs-carrot-chasers","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/reform.news\/en\/carrot-and-stick-continues-new-oligarchs-vs-carrot-chasers","title":{"rendered":"\u201cCarrot And Stick\u201d Continues: New Oligarchs vs. \u201cCarrot Chasers\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Yesterday, about 140 entrepreneurs \u201cfrom across Belarus\u201d visited the Palace of Independence, where, after a tour, they spoke with Prime Minister Aliaksandr Turchyn<\/b>. Today, Aliaksandr Lukashenka<\/b> convened a meeting \u201con certain issues of socio-economic development<\/i>\u201d, which focused on the \u201cmodernization of agricultural production<\/i>\u201d and the transfer of \u201cstate assets in the agro-industrial sector to private companies for management<\/i>\u201d, using the example of Vitsyebsk Region. What do these events have in common, and how is the newly emerging oligarchy building up its strength?<\/p>\n

Pool of the Chosen<\/b><\/h2>\n

Lukashenka’s press service dubbed the meeting at the Palace of Independence \u201cteam building between business and the country’s leadership<\/i>\u201d<\/a>. The initiative to hold it allegedly came from representatives of small and medium-sized businesses themselves.<\/p>\n

There was also a \u201cpiano in the bushes\u201d \u2014 after a three-hour tour, the entrepreneurs met with Prime Minister Aliaksandr Turchyn. His arrival was described by the press service as \u201cunexpected<\/i>\u201d. For two hours, the prime minister answered questions from those present about competition, price regulation, protection of the domestic market, support for domestic producers, import quality and other pressing issues.<\/p>\n

Turchyn was entrusted with presenting a \u201cregime with a human face\u201d to \u201cactive and enterprising entrepreneurs<\/i>\u201d. Naturally, they were not random people, but carefully selected and approved participants. The idea was to make them realize that the foothills of Olympus were already looming on the horizon. And if they continue to behave appropriately, they may perhaps be able to count on more in the future.<\/p>\n

What is more, from the outside it looked as though the prime minister had been given a taste of the role of a future successor: a reception at the Palace of Independence, the role of headliner, more than a hundred entrepreneurs listening attentively, and Natallia Eismant<\/b>, Lukashenka’s press secretary, acting as moderator.<\/p>\n

\"\"
Photo: t.me\/pul_1<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

In the end, everyone got their own \u201ccarrot\u201d. Trusted representatives of small and medium-sized businesses got a chance to feel their connection with the elites. The prime minister got to play first fiddle in public.<\/p>\n

Serious Players<\/b><\/h2>\n

Turchyn took center stage for the admitted small and medium-sized businesses. But the next day, Aliaksandr Lukashenka turned his attention to the pool of heavyweight insiders. The meeting \u201con certain issues of socio-economic development\u201d was about nothing less than privatization<\/a>.<\/p>\n

According to the politician, a \u201cspecific step-by-step anti-crisis plan<\/i>\u201d for Vitsyebsk Region was developed at the beginning of the year. One element of the plan was \u201cthe transfer of insufficiently efficient enterprises to a new owner with sound management capabilities and, most importantly, financial resources.\u201d<\/i><\/p>\n

As Lukashenka explained, the government had proposed transferring 10 organizations in Dubrouna District and the Vitsyebsk Bacon enterprise to the Servolux group of companies owned by Yauhen <\/strong>Baskin<\/b>. A decision was made to grant the group management authority. Servolux has now expressed its readiness to purchase the organizations in question and assume responsibility for their further development. And voil\u00e0 \u2014 a draft decree has been submitted providing for the sale of each organization to the group for one base unit. In return, the new owner will take on a number of obligations, including debt repayment and investment.<\/p>\n

In other words, Baskin’s company is buying up the farms of virtually the entire Dubrouna District for 10 base units. At the same time, Lukashenka stressed that officials must safeguard state interests and make sure that assets are sold at the highest possible price. But what could be worth more than one base unit to a member of the inner circle of serious insiders?<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, several agricultural organizations in Orsha District have been assigned to Savushkin Produkt, owned by Aliaksandr Mashenski<\/strong>. He has also signed a lease agreement for the assets of the Polotsk Dairy Plant.<\/p>\n

De facto, an oligarchy is taking shape in the country. Some trusted businessmen are gaining greater market power, even if only in specific segments. And if this continues, Mashenski will soon control a third of the country’s agricultural sector. Baskin another third.<\/p>\n

We should also not forget Mikalai Varabei<\/b>, Aliaksei Aleksin<\/b>, Pavel<\/b> Tapuzidis<\/b>, the owners of Eurotorg and other businesses that operate \u201cunder the protection\u201d of the state. They are accumulating resources. Clans are growing stronger. They have enough time to build up even more muscle \u2014 a transition is unlikely to take place before 2035.<\/p>\n

Resources And Carrots<\/b><\/h2>\n

By that time, the country will have a number of private businesspeople with substantial resources. The regime controls them by handing out privileges and property while guaranteeing their immunity, on the assumption that they will become the \u201cfeeding base\u201d for a managed transition. They will, of course, firmly support the game Lukashenka is playing.<\/p>\n

But how will they behave at moment X, especially if events begin to unfold according to a different script? Which side will these clans take? By investing in the newly emerging oligarchs, Lukashenka hopes they will take his side. And the system of control, combined with a sense of self-preservation, will not fail.<\/p>\n

The ongoing process of handing state property to businesses close to the authorities should also be taken into account when discussing the issue of a possible successor. Because it provides an understanding of who will have real resources at their disposal and who will remain with a \u201ccarrot\u201d dangling in front of them.<\/p>\n

The most prominent representative of the \u201ccarrot chasers\u201d was and remains Natallia Kachanava<\/b>. Although she is not alone in this position. The carrot of \u201csuccession\u201d has been dangled before many, but their prospects gradually faded away. The tsar is simply amusing himself by playing with his subordinates’ nerves.<\/p>\n

Most likely, a similar fate awaits Aliaksandr Turchyn. He will be given an opportunity to believe in his luck. This will include taking center stage before the lower-level pool at the Palace of Independence. His ratings may even begin to rise. But the steeper the ascent, the harder the landing will be.<\/p>\n

The \u201cfeeding base\u201d being cultivated, judging by all indications, has an important function assigned to it. But it is still a function, not a role.
\n***<\/strong><\/p>\n

The opinions and assessments expressed by the author may not coincide with those of the Reform.news editorial board<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Yesterday, about 140 entrepreneurs \u201cfrom across Belarus\u201d visited the Palace of Independence, where, after a tour, they spoke with Prime Minister Aliaksandr Turchyn. Today, Aliaksandr Lukashenka convened a meeting \u201con certain issues of socio-economic development\u201d, which focused on the \u201cmodernization of agricultural production\u201d and the transfer of \u201cstate assets in the agro-industrial sector to private […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":119,"featured_media":571808,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_sharing_image":{"poster":"https:\/\/reform.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/6a9074275ab11.jpg","width":1200,"height":630,"template":"691142dd","mode":"auto"},"_sharing_image_fieldset":{"dTVKfmI95PYT":"\u201cCarrot And Stick\u201d Continues: New Oligarchs vs. \u201cCarrot Chasers\u201d"},"footnotes":""},"categories":[142376,142339,142338,143127,143090,143126],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-571809","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-comment","category-main","category-news","category-society","category-politics","category-business"],"wps_subtitle":"","permalink_manager":null,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/reform.news\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/571809","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/reform.news\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/reform.news\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/reform.news\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/119"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/reform.news\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=571809"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/reform.news\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/571809\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/reform.news\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/571808"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/reform.news\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=571809"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/reform.news\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=571809"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/reform.news\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=571809"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}