{"id":522216,"date":"2026-03-02T20:26:32","date_gmt":"2026-03-02T17:26:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/reform.news\/?p=522216"},"modified":"2026-03-02T23:56:08","modified_gmt":"2026-03-02T20:56:08","slug":"silence-is-golden-or-why-aliaksandr-lukashenka-bit-his-tongue-over-iran","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/reform.news\/en\/silence-is-golden-or-why-aliaksandr-lukashenka-bit-his-tongue-over-iran","title":{"rendered":"Silence Is Golden, Or Why Aliaksandr Lukashenka Bit His Tongue Over Iran"},"content":{"rendered":"
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After the start of a joint U.S.-Israeli operation against Iran and the ayatollah regime, Aliaksandr Lukashenka<\/b> found himself caught between two fires \u2014 states he would prefer not to quarrel with are involved in the conflict on both sides. This likely explains the unusual restraint shown by the Belarusian politician in assessing the war in Iran and the Middle East.<\/p>\n

Iran Against Everyone<\/h2>\n

On the morning of February 28, the United States and Israel launched a large-scale military operation against Iran. As President Donald Trump<\/b> stated, its goal is to eliminate threats emanating from the Iranian authorities. In the first hours of the war, the allies managed to eliminate a significant part of Iran\u2019s political and military leadership, including the leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Ali Khamenei<\/b>, Commander-in-Chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Mohammad Pakpour<\/b>, Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council Admiral Ali Shamkhani<\/b>, Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces Abdolrahim Mousavi<\/b>, and Defense Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh<\/b>.<\/p>\n

In response, Iran attacked Israel and U.S. allies in the Persian Gulf. Iranian missiles and drones struck Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, Qatar, the UAE and Oman. Iranian authorities stated that they were targeting not the states of the region but exclusively U.S. military facilities located on their territory. However, according to news agencies, at least three people were killed in the UAE as a result of Iranian air attacks and more than fifty were injured. The country\u2019s Defense Ministry said Iran launched 165 ballistic missiles and 541 drones at the UAE. Most were intercepted, but some penetrated air defenses and caused damage. In Dubai, the international airport and the five-star Burj Al Arab hotel were hit. Drone debris fell on residential buildings. In Abu Dhabi, the BBC reported, a woman and a child were injured after fragments of an intercepted drone struck the facade of Etihad Towers.<\/p>\n

UAE presidential adviser Anwar Gargash<\/b> sharply criticized Tehran, calling the attacks on Persian Gulf countries a miscalculation. \u201cThis has isolated Iran at a critical moment. Your war is not with your neighbors,\u201d<\/i> Gargash said.<\/p>\n

Last Sunday, Iranian drones attacked the Omani port of Duqm on the Arabian Sea coast. One drone hit a residential building, while debris from another fell near fuel tanks at the port without causing damage. One person was injured in the raid.<\/p>\n

Condolences In Response<\/h2>\n

Iran\u2019s attack on countries in the Persian Gulf friendly to the Belarusian regime puts Aliaksandr Lukashenka in a difficult position.<\/p>\n

Until recently, official Minsk was discussing military cooperation with both Iran and the UAE. Today the situation has become more complicated. A choice of sides is required, but making one is undesirable.<\/p>\n

If the Belarusian politician were to support Iran, he would risk damaging relations with Oman and the UAE. If he expressed support for those states, Tehran \u2014 which also maintains partnership relations with official Minsk \u2014 would harbor resentment. Moscow, for which Iran is one of its closest allies, would also be unlikely to welcome such a turn of events.<\/p>\n

Condemning the United States, thereby jeopardizing relations with President Trump and his administration that have only just begun to improve, is also unwise. And so he remains silent, waiting for further developments.<\/p>\n

The war is now in its third day, and Lukashenka has yet to comment publicly on the landmark conflict. This is entirely uncharacteristic of him, given both the fact of war and the numerous casualties among Iran\u2019s leadership. On the day hostilities began, he was visiting the Lahoysk district but did not mention the U.S. and Israeli strikes on Tehran. Today, Lukashenka received Murmansk Region Governor Andrey Chibis<\/b> in Minsk. Despite his habit of using such meetings, including for high-profile foreign policy statements, the war in Iran did not come up.<\/p>\n

Only by evening did it become known that Lukashenka had sent condolences to Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian<\/b> over the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe spiritual leader remained faithful to his people until his last breath and courageously accepted martyrdom, defending the sovereignty and independence of Iran.\u201d<\/i> \u201cWe share the pain of this loss and express solidarity with Iran at this difficult moment,\u201d<\/i> the message said.<\/p>\n

At the same time, it contained no condemnation of U.S.-Israeli aggression, nor any wishes for the Iranian regime to endure and prevail \u2014 nothing Tehran might have hoped for. Rather, Lukashenka appeared simply to be going through the motions.<\/p>\n

Restrained Messages<\/h2>\n

His message appeared even more restrained than the condolences sent the previous day by Speaker of the House of Representatives Ihar Siarhieyenka<\/b> to Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf<\/b>. Siarhieyenka at least noted the Belarusian side\u2019s \u201cprincipled position\u201d<\/i> against any aggressive actions and wished the Iranian side \u201ca swift resolution of the military conflict by peaceful means and normalization of the situation in the country.\u201d<\/i> Lukashenka\u2019s message did not include even that.<\/p>\n

Earlier, the Belarusian Foreign Ministry also attempted to sit on two chairs, stating it was following \u201cwith concern\u201d<\/i> the \u201cescalation of the situation between Israel and Iran, which has also affected friendly Gulf states.\u201d<\/i> The ministry called on the countries involved in the exchange of strikes to abandon dangerous confrontation and return to resolving disagreements through political and diplomatic means.<\/p>\n

That essentially concluded the official reaction to events in Iran. It appears to reflect a desire not to overstep \u2014 to observe the proprieties toward Iran while avoiding undue attention from the leadership of states toward which Iranian missiles and drones are currently flying.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe Storm Of Islam\u201d<\/h2>\n

On the domestic information front, the situation looks somewhat different.<\/p>\n

The pro-government party Belaya Rus called on \u201call reasonable political forces\u201d<\/i> to unite in condemning the strikes on Iran.<\/p>\n

The state news agency BelTA actively quotes Iranian sources, reporting on IRGC attacks on Israel and civilian casualties in Iran. It covers protests against the war with Iran in New York and Vienna, without mentioning numerous rallies by the Iranian diaspora celebrating Khamenei\u2019s death.<\/p>\n

Pro-government propagandists have gone even further. Vadzim Gigin<\/b> said that \u201c\u2018peacemaker\u2019 Trump has started a new war,\u201d<\/i> placing the word \u201cpeacemaker\u201d in quotation marks. Aliaksandr Shpakouski<\/b>\u00a0lamented \u201cthe final consolidation of terrorist practices in the policies of certain states,\u201d<\/i> wished \u201ccourage and resilience to the Iranian people and the country\u2019s leadership,\u201d<\/i> and asked what experts thought about \u201cwho is next\u201d<\/i> after Cuba, seemingly hinting at the Belarusian regime.<\/p>\n

As usual, Ryhor\u00a0Azaronak<\/strong> did not hold back. First, in verse, he expressed hope that \u201cthe skyscrapers of Manhattan\u201d<\/i> would be covered by \u201cthe storm of Islam.\u201d<\/i> He continued: \u201cFight, sacred Iran, against you stands the Epstein regime, pedophile-satanists. This is the very Antichrist Dajjal.\u201d<\/i> He concluded with the call: \u201cAll of us around the world today say \u2014 Allahu Akbar!\u201d<\/i><\/p>\n

This product for a domestic audience, unlike the external one, leaves no doubt about unequivocal support for the Iranian regime. However, the outcries of propagandists carry little apparent cost for official Minsk. Siarhieyenka\u2019s statements will likely be lost in the information flow and unlikely to attract attention in the UAE or Oman. As for the appeals of Belaya Rus, Azarenok and others, they are unlikely to go beyond the domestic information space.<\/p>\n

Silence Is Golden?<\/h2>\n

Lukashenka\u2019s silence, however, is hardly surprising. He places great hopes on both the UAE and Oman. He visits these two Persian Gulf states with notable regularity, often accompanied by his family.<\/p>\n

Relations with the Sultanate of Oman are overseen personally by his eldest son, Viktar Lukashenka<\/b>. A joint Belarusian-Omani investment fund in Minsk to finance projects in Belarus, construction of a new pulp and paper mill in Belarus, a logistics hub for Belarusian goods in Oman, and a trilateral project to establish joint production of complex fertilizers with Algeria \u2014 these and other projects were discussed just a couple of months ago with Sultan Haitham bin Tariq Al Said<\/b>. At the All-Belarusian People\u2019s Assembly, Lukashenka spoke of plans to build a resort in that country.<\/p>\n

Viktar Lukashenka visited the UAE as recently as January 2026. There, too, plans are ambitious. In June last year, Belarus and the UAE signed an agreement on trade in services and investment. The UAE was described as Belarus\u2019s main trading partner among the Arab Gulf states.<\/p>\n

And this is only what has been officially announced. The unusual level of activity around the UAE and Oman may indicate other interests of the Lukashenka family in these states. The UAE is considered one of the fastest-growing global centers of diamond trade. It is there that Aftrade DMCC is registered, a company linked to another trusted businessman from the circle of Lukashenka and Viktar Sheiman<\/b> \u2014 Aleksandr Zingman<\/b>. Among other things, he extracts resources in Africa, particularly in Zimbabwe, a country of heightened interest to the Belarusian politician.<\/p>\n

There has been speculation that the Lukashenka clan actively invests its money in the UAE and Oman.<\/p>\n

And so the politician must now tread carefully, hoping the regional conflict will not drag on and that he will not have to choose between Iran, the UAE and Oman. Perhaps he will manage to remain silent and slip through.<\/p>\n

Or perhaps not. After the shock of the first strikes subsides, the leadership of the Persian Gulf states friendly to the Belarusian regime is likely to analyze who stood with them, who stood against them, and who simply remained silent. Thus, the question of whether Oman and the Emirates will still welcome Lukashenka\u2019s money may no longer have a clear answer. Silence is golden. But sometimes it is not.<\/p>\n

***<\/p>\n

The author\u2019s opinions and assessments may not coincide with the position of the Reform.news editorial board.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

After the start of a joint U.S.-Israeli operation against Iran and the ayatollah regime, Aliaksandr Lukashenka found himself caught between two fires \u2014 states he would prefer not to quarrel with are involved in the conflict on both sides. This likely explains the unusual restraint shown by the Belarusian politician in assessing the war in […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":77,"featured_media":522215,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_sharing_image":{"poster":"https:\/\/reform.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/69a5f96cb0879.jpg","width":1200,"height":630,"template":"691142dd","mode":"auto"},"_sharing_image_fieldset":{"dTVKfmI95PYT":"Silence Is Golden, Or Why Aliaksandr Lukashenka Bit His Tongue Over Iran"},"footnotes":""},"categories":[142376,142339,142338],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-522216","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-comment","category-main","category-news"],"wps_subtitle":"","permalink_manager":null,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/reform.news\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/522216","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/reform.news\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/reform.news\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/reform.news\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/77"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/reform.news\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=522216"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/reform.news\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/522216\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/reform.news\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/522215"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/reform.news\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=522216"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/reform.news\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=522216"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/reform.news\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=522216"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}