{"id":498763,"date":"2025-11-27T09:07:40","date_gmt":"2025-11-27T06:07:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/reform.news\/?p=498763"},"modified":"2025-11-27T09:34:25","modified_gmt":"2025-11-27T06:34:25","slug":"maintaining-gdp-growth-will-require-stronger-domestic-stimuli-beroc","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/reform.news\/en\/maintaining-gdp-growth-will-require-stronger-domestic-stimuli-beroc","title":{"rendered":"Maintaining GDP Growth Will Require Stronger Domestic Stimuli \u2014 BEROC"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Maintaining GDP growth at 1.5% through year-end will require strengthening domestic stimuli, according to an express analysis of the Belarusian economy for October published by the BEROC research centre.<\/p>\n

Earlier, Belstat reported that Belarus\u2019s GDP grew by 1.5% in January\u2013October. For comparison, growth in January\u2013September stood at 1.6%.<\/p>\n

According to BEROC, GDP in October increased by approximately 0.6% compared with the same month last year.<\/p>\n

\u201cSeasonally adjusted GDP fell by about 1% in October compared with September, returning to levels seen in spring 2024. The key factor was a decline in industrial output, which dropped slightly below levels of the second half of 2023. Weaker demand in Russia, combined with intensifying competition in the Russian market and the exhaustion of available labour and capital reserves, is hindering export-oriented sectors. Domestic demand in October increased due to higher investment in construction, while consumer activity stagnated amid slower lending and reduced consumer confidence,\u201d<\/i> the document states.<\/p>\n

BEROC estimates that if output in November\u2013December remains at the October level, annual GDP growth will amount to 1.1\u20131.2%. The official socio-economic development forecast approved by Alyaksandr Lukashenka<\/b> projects GDP growth of 4.1% for the year.<\/p>\n

The centre\u2019s experts note that growth of 1.1\u20131.2% would reflect a substantial easing of economic overheating, lower price pressures, and annual inflation remaining near or below 7%.<\/p>\n

\u201cTo ensure full-year GDP growth of 1.5% year-on-year, output in November\u2013December must grow by slightly more than 1% per month. Under conditions of subdued demand in Russia, such dynamics would be possible only if domestic stimuli are temporarily strengthened through looser lending conditions and increased budget spending,\u201d<\/i> the analysis says.<\/p>\n

Experts also note an increase in agricultural value added in October driven by higher harvests of major crops and stronger livestock indicators.<\/p>\n

Seasonally adjusted industrial output fell by 2% in October compared with September.<\/p>\n

\u201cAll regions and Minsk recorded declines in manufacturing output compared with the previous month. Regional data suggest that most industries faced difficulties selling products amid weaker Russian demand and slower growth in domestic demand. Meanwhile, combined declines in manufacturing in the Vitebsk and Homiel regions indicate an absence of significant growth in petroleum product output. It cannot be ruled out that Belarusian oil refineries may gain additional competitive advantages from lower oil import prices given the widening November discount of Russian Urals crude to the European Brent benchmark,\u201d<\/i> the authors note.<\/p>\n

Value added in the transport sector increased in October, while in information and communications it declined.<\/p>\n

\u201cRetail turnover remained at the September level (in real terms). Compared with previous years, restrained lending dynamics and falling consumer confidence limited consumer activity. However, demand did not decrease and remained high due to rising household incomes. Overheating of consumer demand will ease if the National Bank maintains directive limits on retail credit portfolio growth and if labour market pressures gradually diminish amid slowing economic growth,\u201d<\/i> the overview states.<\/p>\n

BEROC expects the foreign trade deficit to shrink in the coming months as imports \u201cnormalise.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Maintaining GDP growth at 1.5% through year-end will require strengthening domestic stimuli, according to an express analysis of the Belarusian economy for October published by the BEROC research centre. Earlier, Belstat reported that Belarus\u2019s GDP grew by 1.5% in January\u2013October. For comparison, growth in January\u2013September stood at 1.6%. According to BEROC, GDP in October increased […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":498762,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_sharing_image":{"poster":"https:\/\/reform.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/6927f0f6858ae.jpg","width":1200,"height":630,"template":"691142dd","mode":"auto"},"_sharing_image_fieldset":{"dTVKfmI95PYT":"Maintaining GDP Growth Will Require Stronger Domestic Stimuli \u2014 BEROC"},"footnotes":""},"categories":[142339,142338],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-498763","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-main","category-news"],"wps_subtitle":"","permalink_manager":null,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/reform.news\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/498763","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/reform.news\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/reform.news\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/reform.news\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/reform.news\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=498763"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/reform.news\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/498763\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/reform.news\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/498762"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/reform.news\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=498763"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/reform.news\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=498763"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/reform.news\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=498763"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}