Вадим Скибицкий. Фото: ГУР
Russia is trying to draw Belarus into the war against Ukraine, but Kyiv currently sees no signs of preparations for strike groups on Belarusian territory. Deputy Head of the Main Directorate of Intelligence of Ukraine’s Ministry of Defence Vadym Skibitskyi said this at a meeting of the Ukraine-NATO Interparliamentary Council.
According to Skibitskyi, Russia’s aggressive plans include blockading the Black Sea and attempts to draw Belarus into the war and hybrid operations against NATO. He outlined the reasons why Minsk is not entering the war.
“As of today, we do not see any real signs of preparations for strike groups on the territory of Belarus, but we remember January-February 2022. […] The key factors holding Belarus back are internal risks, limited military capabilities and potential economic problems,” the deputy head of the GUR said.
Ukraine believes that Belarus will continue to support Russia’s hybrid operations.
“At the same time, based on our assessments, we consider it quite likely that Belarus will continue to support [Russian] hybrid activities by providing its territory to exert pressure on the border with NATO member states and increase the intensity of information and psychological operations,” Skibitskyi said.
Skibitskyi stressed that Russia has not abandoned its strategic goal of destroying Ukrainian statehood.
The GUR believes that in 2026-2027 Russia plans to mobilize around 600,000 people, with half of them to be mobilized by the end of this year. Russia is also increasing the intensity of missile and drone strikes on Ukraine in an effort to trigger a socioeconomic crisis, and plans to increase ballistic missile production.