Tsikhanouskaya’s Office Sees No Contradiction In Lithuania’s Statements On Military Threat From Belarus

Diplomatic adviser to Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, Dzianis Kuchynski, commented on Lithuania’s statements that there has been no increase in the military threat from Belarus.

It is worth recalling that last week Lithuanian President’s chief national security adviser Deividas Matulionis said that Vilnius does not see an increased threat from Minsk.

“es, there are certain Russian military facilities, but we definitely do not see any new maneuver units that would pose a direct threat to Lithuania, Latvia or Poland”, he said. Matulionis also noted that Aliaksandr Lukashenka was not interested in direct involvement in Russia’s war against Ukraine.

According to Kuchynski, Matulionis’s statement does not contradict the position of Belarusian democratic forces.

“We are not saying that an attack will happen tomorrow. We are saying that militarization is underway, infrastructure is being created, and capabilities are being increased that could be used at one time or another”, Kuchynski said.

Tsikhanouskaya’s adviser suggested distinguishing between militarization and aggression itself.

“These are different processes, different stages of a threat, different scenarios. Militarization is, in this sense, a long-term process of preparation and building capabilities, which includes the development of military infrastructure, training grounds, warehouses, various communications and command systems, as well as increasing production for military needs and adapting and militarizing state-owned enterprises to fulfill certain military orders.

Aggression, by contrast, can be a kind of rapid stage, when the necessary infrastructure and material base have already been created. And the transition from preparation to direct action can happen much faster”, Kuchynski said.

He believes it is important to assess not only the presence of Russian troops near the border, but also the capabilities being created for their presence in Belarus.

Kuchynski stressed that Belarus has been building and modernizing military infrastructure in recent years: training grounds, warehouses and facilities supporting the activities of troops. Some of this information is publicly available.

Kuchynski believes that the assessment of the current situation by Belarusian democratic forces does not contradict the assessment of the Lithuanian side. Tsikhanouskaya’s Office does not see an immediate threat of large-scale military escalation or a significant buildup of the Russian military presence in Belarus that would indicate preparations for a conventional attack. At the same time, the Office notes the demonstrative militarization and creation of military infrastructure, which could be used as an element of psychological or political pressure on European countries.

“The absence of an immediate threat today, at this point, does not mean that we can rule out other scenarios, especially when it comes to hybrid operations, provocations and other actions by the regimes in Minsk and Russia, in Moscow, using Belarusian territory or infrastructure created in Belarus”, Kuchynski stressed.

He noted that some of this infrastructure is already being used in the interests of Russia’s military machine against Ukraine, while structures of the Lukashenka regime are assisting in recruiting Belarusians into the Russian armed forces.

Kuchynski also noted that the work of Belarusian enterprises fulfilling long-term contracts for the Russian army may indicate that Russia is not preparing to end the war soon, but instead may be preparing for a prolonged confrontation.

Tsikhanouskaya’s adviser stressed that the assessment of the situation by Belarusian democratic forces coincides with that of the Baltic states and Poland, which warn of the danger of provocations, hybrid operations and Russian false-flag operations.

According to Kuchynski, it is important now to avoid panic, but at the same time to closely monitor the preparatory processes.

“Our goal — that of Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya’s Office and democratic forces in general — is to prevent Belarus from becoming even more deeply involved in this war. The Lukashenka regime must completely stop supporting Russian aggression against Ukraine, stop allowing Belarusian territory and infrastructure to be used in the interests of Putin’s military machine, as well as end any pressure, threats and provocations against Belarus’s neighbors”, Kuchynski concluded.