Акция протеста против АдГ у Бранденбургских ворот в Берлине. Фото Getty Images, обработанное ИИ.
The victory of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) in the German federal state of Saxony-Anhalt caused a stir far beyond Germany. Some observers call the election “a turning point,” since it was the first time since 1945 that the far right “won.” Will the winner be able to form a government? And could the AfD win if Bundestag elections were held today?
According to the final results of the elections to the parliament of the federal state of Saxony-Anhalt, the AfD won 43.8% of the vote — more than twice as much as five years ago. The result of Federal Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s party, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), fell to 17.2%. The Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) received 9.3%, the Greens — 8.9%, the Left Party — 8.6%, and the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) — 5.3%. The remaining parties failed to clear the five-percent threshold.
Yet the AfD fell three seats short of securing an outright majority in the state parliament. This has created numerous options, in almost every one of which a leading role is assigned to the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance — the party that received the fewest votes among those entering parliament. Much of the future of the Saxony-Anhalt state government depends on it.
According to AfD leader Alice Weidel, to secure a majority her party is counting, among other things, on the support of “the CDU or part of the CDU.” However, such a scenario is extremely unlikely. Germany has what is known as a “political firewall”: an agreement among the main political parties — the CDU/CSU, SPD, Greens and Free Democratic Party — not to form alliances with the AfD at the federal, state or municipal levels. Representatives of these parties have already said they intend to abide by the agreement.
An alliance between the AfD and the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance is more likely. Weidel called the party “a very interesting project,” noting its willingness to support “reasonable initiatives.” The left-wing populist Alliance won five seats in these elections. Adding them to the AfD’s seats gives the two parties a majority in the 83-seat state parliament.
The AfD and BSW have similar positions on a number of issues. Both parties advocate ending military aid to Ukraine, restricting migration, resuming purchases of Russian energy and generally moving closer to Russia. But that is where the similarities largely end. Economically, BSW advocates a strong welfare state, higher pensions, protection of workers’ rights and higher taxes on the wealthy, while the AfD holds neoliberal views, including lower taxes for businesses, cuts to social subsidies and minimizing state intervention in the economy. However, these differences may not prevent the two parties from entering an alliance, especially at the state level.
BSW leader Sahra Wagenknecht has already confirmed her readiness to cooperate with the AfD. At this stage, however, BSW has proposed electing a non-party state premier of Saxony-Anhalt, rather than offering the post to the AfD’s leading candidate Ulrich Siegmund. Siegmund, for his part, has already rejected the proposal. Instead, the politician said he currently sees no potential coalition partners. However, he did not rule out the possibility that the situation could change in the coming days.
Experts note that with BSW entering parliament, the possibility of forming a minority government involving the CDU, SPD and Greens with the tacit support of the Left Party is no longer mathematically feasible.
To obtain a majority without the AfD, all five parties represented in parliament would need to join forces: the CDU, SPD, Greens, Left Party and Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance. This scenario is also considered unlikely.
BSW’s leading candidate in Saxony-Anhalt, Claudia Wittig, said that if there is no other option, her party is prepared to abstain in the vote. This could allow AfD regional leader Siegmund to become premier even without an absolute majority, since a simple majority is sufficient in the third round of voting, which the AfD could secure with its seats if BSW abstains.
There is another option — the AfD, again with the help of BSW, could decide to dissolve parliament after a second failed attempt to elect a premier, in the hope of securing an absolute majority in new elections. Siegmund has repeatedly said that he would refuse to take the post of premier of the federal state if his party did not win an absolute majority.
Otherwise, compromise solutions will have to be sought. It is extremely difficult to predict what the parties will ultimately agree on.
Among politicians, reactions to the AfD’s success predictably depended on their political positions.
“We are all deeply shocked. We did not expect such a sweeping defeat. Yesterday’s election brought changes not only in Saxony-Anhalt, but throughout Germany. The results of this election will also have consequences for the country’s international position,” German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said.
Former Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, meanwhile, called the Saxony-Anhalt election results “A great night for Germany and Europe,” adding that “this is only the beginning.”
Is that really the case? The growing popularity of right-wing parties in Europe is difficult to ignore. Germany is no exception. Moreover, some experts believe that the AfD’s success will give politically like-minded forces in other European countries greater confidence.
Saxony-Anhalt, where the AfD achieved its success, was formerly part of the German Democratic Republic (GDR). Support for the party has always been higher in the east than in the country as a whole. On Sept. 20 this year, elections will be held in another state that was part of the GDR — Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania.
Here, preliminary polls show the following picture. The AfD remains in the lead with 37 percentage points. The Social Democrats (SPD) are in second place with 28%. They are followed by the Left Party with 11%. The CDU has just 10%. The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance currently polls at 4% and risks failing to clear the five-percent threshold.
Thus, the same situation as in Saxony-Anhalt could well emerge in this state — after receiving the largest number of votes, the AfD may be unable to form a government on its own. But its political opponents may also fail to secure that right. Repeated occurrences of such a situation, including in other states, could trigger a full-scale political crisis.
However, while the AfD was previously more often supported by residents of eastern Germany, opinion polls now show that the party has become the most popular political force across Germany as a whole.
If new Bundestag elections had been held last Sunday, the CDU/CSU bloc led by Chancellor Merz would have received just 19.5% of the vote. These are the findings of an Insa Institute poll conducted from Sept. 4 to 7, 2026, cited by Welt. It is noted that for the first time in five years, the CDU/CSU rating has fallen below 20%.
The AfD, meanwhile, firmly holds first place. Its rating is 29%. Moreover, due to the CDU/CSU’s declining popularity, the AfD’s lead over the bloc has reached 9.5 percentage points.
The Greens are in third place with 13.5%. They are followed by the SPD with 12.5% and the Left Party with 10.5%. The FDP has 4.5%, while the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance has 4%, and both parties currently risk failing to clear the electoral threshold.
In 2027, elections to state parliaments will also be held in several other German states — Saarland, Schleswig-Holstein, North Rhine-Westphalia and Lower Saxony will elect their state parliaments.
Much can change before the Bundestag elections, which will take place in spring 2029. Over the next 12 months, elections will be held in key EU countries — France, Italy, Spain and Poland. And in Brussels, the BBC writes, there are fears that more “extremist” parties — both left-wing, but especially right-wing — could strengthen their positions across the board.
For now, the situation in Germany itself does not look catastrophic, especially if the other leading parties continue to adhere to the political firewall. The AfD may win more votes while remaining outside coalitions and unable to form a government.
Let us recall the recent parliamentary elections in Poland, where the Law and Justice party formally won. However, it was unable to remain in power because its opponents formed a broad coalition. But the example of Germany shows that the CDU/CSU, SPD and Greens may already lack enough votes to oppose the AfD and its potential situational allies in a coalition.
Moreover, the “centrifugal forces” caused by political failures could well lead some conservative politicians to move into the camp of more radical colleagues. We have already seen this in the United Kingdom, where some members of the Conservative Party’s right wing, believing that the party had fallen into crisis, moved to Nigel Farage’s Reform UK. This is apparently what AfD leader Weidel is hinting at when she talks about counting on the support of “part of the CDU.”
So-called traditional parties should seriously consider their prospects. For now, it is not very clear what they intend to do to counter the growth of right- and left-wing populist trends. The world is changing. And they, it seems, are failing to keep up.
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The opinions and assessments of the author may not coincide with those of the editorial board of Reform.news