Фото: Генштаб ВСУ
September was one of the most difficult months of 2026 for Muscovite forces. Ukraine made public its counteroffensive operation in northern Donetsk region, disrupting plans to encircle the Donbas “fortress belt”.
At the same time, Moscow sharply intensified long-range strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, preparing to use the winter period as a means of putting pressure on the population and the economy.
Muscovite troops continued their massive attacks in Donetsk region around Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka and Dobropillia, but failed to break through Ukrainian defences or reach operational space.
The main event of the month was the disclosure of Ukraine’s “Vivaldi” operation in northern Donetsk region, near the city of Lyman.
On September 15, Ukraine’s 3rd Army Corps reported that Ukrainian forces had conducted an offensive operation, forcing Russian troops attempting to outflank Sloviansk and Kramatorsk from the north to retreat or destroying them.
Ukrainian figures for enemy losses: 5,000 killed, wounded and captured, along with “hundreds of armoured vehicles, motor vehicles and artillery systems”. Long-range drones played a significant role, severely disrupting enemy supply lines in the area of the operation.
Belarusian volunteers also participated successfully in the operation, alongside the reconnaissance battalion of the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ 3rd Separate Assault Brigade.
By September 28, the Ukrainian side stated that the total area of territory retaken had reached approximately 176 square kilometres.
Analyst Clément Molin published a map of the Ukrainian operation, which had lasted four months. According to his calculations, Ukrainian forces had liberated more than 200 square kilometres of their territory by early September.
Ultimately, taking into account the months-long delay in disclosing data on Ukrainian troop advances, the Deep State mapping project calculated that from May to July, Ukrainian forces had actually liberated more territory than they lost. As for August and September, it is too early to draw any conclusions.
Many observers cite the culture of false reporting, widespread in the Muscovite army and its propaganda apparatus, as one of the reasons for the success of Ukraine’s operation near Lyman. Field commanders report territorial gains and battles, often not merely exaggerating their successes but completely fabricating them in pursuit of new ranks and awards.
Reports of failures and retreats are similarly delayed or never reach senior command at all.
The clearest example of how far the Russian command can be detached from reality was Putin’s statement that Muscovite troops had captured Sviatohirsk — a city Russian forces had not even approached.
In response, on September 7, Andrei Biletsky, commander of the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ 3rd Army Corps, recorded a video from the centre of Sviatohirsk, advising Russia’s military and political leadership to “take off their clown noses”.
In September, Russia and Ukraine continued their reciprocal campaigns of long-range strikes against energy infrastructure, fuel facilities, ports, industrial enterprises, logistics centres and communications systems.
The sides’ targets differed considerably. Ukraine primarily sought to disrupt Russian oil refining and military logistics, while Moscow increasingly targeted transport hubs, ports, data centres, industrial facilities and civilian energy infrastructure in an effort to create a humanitarian catastrophe ahead of winter.
At the same time, Ukraine continued its medium-range strikes, destroying Muscovite forces’ logistics infrastructure at distances of up to 150 kilometres from the front line.
By mid-September, Reuters assessed the situation as systemic: half of Russia’s six largest refineries producing motor fuels had been forced to substantially cut output or halt processing entirely because of damage sustained in attacks.
The consequences for Russia included:
It is important, however, not to overstate the impact: the Muscovite oil refining system retains significant spare capacity, and some units can be temporarily replaced or repaired. The strikes are causing shortages and logistical problems, but do not in themselves mean that the entire oil industry has ground to a halt.