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Belarus’s GDP is expected to grow by 1.5–2.5% in 2026, exceeding $100 billion by the end of the year, according to the latest macroeconomic forecast published by MacroBy as part of its Belarus economy monitoring project.
The GDP growth forecast has been revised upward compared with the beginning of the year. At that time, MacroBy projected economic growth of 0.5–1.5%.
“The economy accelerated to approximately 3% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026 (after contracting by 0.2% year-on-year in the first quarter) and is expected to maintain annual growth of around 2–3% in the second half of the year. This will be supported by accommodative economic policy, directive investment stimulus, a moderate recovery in demand in Russia, and specific factors (primarily favorable trade conditions and high volumes of toll crude oil processing).
Domestic demand remains imbalanced, which, combined with the economy’s exposure to external shocks, generates output volatility and creates a recurring need for directive intervention to contain these imbalances,” the forecast says.
GDP growth is expected to slow to 1.5% in 2027, assuming a neutral fiscal policy and the fading of these specific factors.
The official socio-economic development forecast, approved by a decree signed by Aliaksandr Lukashenka, projects economic growth of 2.8% this year. The Eurasian Development Bank recently forecast Belarus’s economic growth at 1.3% this year, the IMF at 1.2%, and the EBRD at 1.1%.
MacroBy expects inflation to reach 5–6% by the end of this year and 6–7% next year. The main factors will be price controls and an exchange rate for the Belarusian ruble close to its equilibrium level.
“Strict price controls combined with accommodative economic policy lead to the accumulation of inflationary overhang, narrowing the room for policy maneuver if the external environment deteriorates,” the authors of the forecast warned.
The average nominal accrued monthly wage is projected to reach about 3,043 Belarusian rubles this year and 3,396 rubles in 2027, remaining consistently above $1,000.
The report notes that uncertainty surrounding the forecast remains high, primarily because of unstable external conditions.
MacroBy also identified the main risks to its forecast. The first is related to sanctions. Changes to sanctions regimes could be either negative or positive. Negative changes could affect Belarus both directly and indirectly.
“An easing of sanctions against Belarus and Russia is also possible if progress is made toward resolving the military and political situation in the region. A relaxation of U.S. sanctions remains the more likely scenario, which could reduce transaction costs and have a moderately positive effect on the country’s business climate,” the forecast says.
Russia’s economic performance will also affect Belarus’s GDP growth. If Russia records zero growth this year, Belarus’s GDP is unlikely to expand by more than 1.5%.
“The duration and scale of toll crude oil processing by Belarusian refineries also remain uncertain. These arrangements have had a significant positive effect on profitability and wage growth across the country’s industrial sector, have enabled a substantial increase in the surplus in foreign trade in services, and have largely offset the deficit in merchandise trade. If these arrangements are extended into 2027, they could, all else being equal, temporarily support somewhat stronger GDP growth, a stronger Belarusian ruble, and lower inflation compared with the baseline scenario,” the forecast notes.
Changes in the terms of energy trade with Russia and the level of Russian financial support could also affect GDP dynamics.
The accumulation of inflationary overhang also poses a risk. If price regulation is eased because of external or domestic factors, inflation could accelerate to 8–10%.
The baseline scenario assumes that Russia’s economy will grow by 0.8% this year and accelerate to 1.5% next year. The sanctions regime against Belarus is expected to remain unchanged, while logistics chains are not expected to be disrupted. Belarus is projected to increase export revenues from potash fertilizers through both higher export volumes of 12–12.5 million tonnes and higher prices.
As a result, export revenues are projected at $3.5–4 billion in 2026–2027. Belarus is expected to continue receiving Russian oil and gas at below-market prices. Exports of petroleum products are projected at about 8 million tonnes. An additional 4–5 million tonnes could be supplied to Russia under toll processing arrangements.