The Eurasian Fund for Stabilization and Development (EFSD) has raised its forecast for Belarus’s GDP growth in 2026 in its autumn regional outlook. The forecast has been increased by 0.7 percentage points to 2%.
The growth forecast for 2027 has also been raised, by 0.4 percentage points. The Belarusian economy is expected to grow by 1.2% next year. The forecast for 2028 stands at 1.1%.
According to the EFSD, inflation will reach 5.2% this year, accelerate to 6.4% next year and stand at 5.9% in 2028.
“GDP is expected to grow by around 2% in 2026, after which growth will slow to 1–2%, approaching its equilibrium level. External demand will be more subdued than domestic demand. Inflation will reach 5.2% by the end of 2026. In 2027, pressure from domestic demand and a tight labour market, alongside weaker favourable external factors, will temporarily accelerate inflation to 6.4%, after which it will move back towards the 5% target. Fiscal stimulus will gradually ease, and the consolidated budget is expected to approach balance by the end of the forecast period,” the outlook says.