Украинские военнослужащие. Фото: Генштаб ВСУ
October may have become the second consecutive month in which occupying forces suffered a net territorial loss, as well as the month with the highest personnel losses on record.
Ukraine maintained the initiative in several sectors of the front, while its long-range strikes, following a temporary pause, continued to cripple Muscovite oil refining and military production.
Moscow, meanwhile, continued missile and drone strikes against Ukraine’s civilian energy infrastructure, digital systems and transport networks, seeking to put pressure on society ahead of winter.
The most notable development of the month was an unexpected humanitarian ceasefire around the town of Oleshky, occupied by Muscovite forces, which made it possible to evacuate all civilians who wished to leave.
Russian forces continued their attacks in Donetsk, Kharkiv, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions but failed to achieve an operational breakthrough or collapse Ukraine’s defences. The front line remained relatively static overall, while Muscovy suffered disproportionately high losses for limited territorial gains.
According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Muscovite forces captured approximately 139.85 sq km in October but lost 167.14 sq km. Moscow’s net territorial result was a loss of 27.29 sq km. This was the second consecutive month in which Russia lost more territory than it captured. In September, its net territorial losses were estimated at around 80.81 sq km.
Ukraine’s General Staff estimated that enemy forces suffered 54,400 killed or seriously wounded in October 2026 — the highest monthly personnel losses inflicted on Muscovite forces throughout the war.
While Russian forces continued attacking in the area of Dobropillia in Donetsk Region, Ukrainian forces seized the initiative around Kupiansk, Lyman and Oleksandrivka.
An unexpected exception to the general logic of the war was a local ceasefire around the occupied town of Oleshky (population: 2,000) in Kherson Region.
Oleshky, occupied by Russia at the beginning of the full-scale war, faced an extremely difficult situation in autumn 2026. Residents were left without food, electricity or adequate medical care. They had no safe way to leave the town.
According to the Ukrainian account, Russian forces used the settlement as a base for drone strikes against the civilian population of Kherson, located opposite Oleshky on the other side of the Dnipro River. At the same time, civilians were held by Muscovite forces in buildings as human shields, while being supplied only as a low priority.
According to the Russian version, the humanitarian catastrophe was caused entirely by Ukrainian forces, which remotely mined and shelled the access roads to the settlement.
On October 23, Russia and Ukraine announced an agreement on a ceasefire in Oleshky, reached with the mediation of US First Lady Melania Trump. The ceasefire took effect on October 27, allowing humanitarian aid deliveries and the evacuation of residents through humanitarian corridors to begin.
Reuters described the operation as the first successful joint humanitarian effort in four years and eight months of war. The development did not amount to a general ceasefire, but demonstrated that even during wartime, limited, technically defined agreements are possible when the parties have a specific humanitarian interest and an external mediator.
As a result, residents took advantage of the ceasefire to leave the town, heading mainly to Ukraine.
Another significant development of the month was a sharp increase in losses suffered by Russian military aviation.
The most significant incident was Ukraine’s strike on the Borisoglebsk airbase in Voronezh Region on the night of October 15. According to satellite imagery analysed by ISW, four Su-34 aircraft were destroyed, while Ukraine’s General Staff reported damage to two more Su-34Ms. This was a particularly sensitive loss: the Su-34 is Russia’s primary carrier of glide bombs, which are used to attack Ukrainian cities and positions near the front line.
On October 29, Ukrainian forces reported destroying another two Su-34 aircraft at the Marinovka airbase in Volgograd Region.
In addition to losses at airbases, Russian military aircraft were also lost in accidents and due to technical failures. Open sources reported the crash of two Su-30SM aircraft in Kaliningrad Region on October 21, a fire that completely destroyed an Su-57 at the Akhtubinsk airbase on October 29, and the loss of one or possibly two Mi-8 helicopters during the month.
The total estimated losses of Muscovite military aviation stand at 11–13 aircraft and one or two helicopters.
Overall, Russian aviation remains an important instrument of the war, primarily through the use of glide bombs and strikes against Ukrainian infrastructure. However, for reasons that are not entirely clear, its vulnerability at airbases may have increased significantly in October. Ukrainian missile and long-range drone strikes have demonstrated that even aircraft stationed deep inside Russian territory can no longer be considered fully protected.
We will continue to monitor whether this trend persists.